Trump has 'squandered' a good economy on tax cuts for billionaires -- now he needs someone to blame

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23 August 2019

For almost three years, Donald Trump has coasted along on the crest of the economic wave set in motion by President Barack Obama. But he’s definitely been coasting. Even with the pure sugar water blast provided to corporations by the Republican tax bonanza, economic performance has been weaker on almost every point since Trump took control—and that’s before this week’s re-calibration showed that half a million of the new jobs Trump has been bragging about were imaginary. Manufacturing … is not coming back. Steel … is not expanding. Coal … is absolutely dying. And farmers are experiencing the worst rate of failures in history as they wallow under the burden of Trump’s “trade wars are good, and easy to win” policy.

Now the wave that began with the 2009 stimulus package is all but played out, worn down by actions that channeled even more money into the pockets of those who don’t spend it, and by the simple passage of time. The recent inversion of the yield curve on bonds is just one of several signals that the long period of growth is over. The economy has not escaped the boom-bust cycle which has existed at least since the Industrial Revolution. It’s not clear that it ever will.

And having finally been convinced that all is not well, and likely to be so not-well that people will genuinely notice no matter what’s being said on Fox & Friends, Donald Trump is finally taking action concerning the threat of recession—he’s laying in a really, really good whine.

As Reuters reports, Trump has counted on “the best economy ever” to be his biggest selling point in 2020. Just as Republicans immediately pretended that the 2008 recession started on Barack Obama’s watch when he was elected, Trump and his followers immediately took credit for the economic conditions that Trump inherited in January of 2017 and have pretended ever since that he was the one who somehow brought on prosperity by doing … something, something, something.

Now Trump is after what has always been his most handy commodity — a convenient scapegoat. He’s going after the media for “trying to create a recession.” He’s going after the Federal Reserve chair for not ignoring his job and pouring free money into the economy. He’s going after Democrats who dare to point out the warning signs. He’s doing everything but trying to address the problem.

There are actions that Trump could be taking at this point to brace the nation for a recession … though not as many as there should be. The Republican tax bill has so emptied the national coffers and the Federal Reserve rates have been so low, for so long, that it’s not clear there’s a lot of stimulative action available. Trump will probably take his foot off the neck of farmers by announcing some kind of a deal with China and removing tariffs—whether or not such a deal exists—simply in the hopes of generating an economic good news story and giving him the opportunity to declare a “win.” But it’s not apparent that another announcement that China is going to buy just so much grain will have any effect, not when Trump has already made that ploy half a dozen times.

In the meantime, Democratic candidates are increasingly willing to point out the gathering clouds. Beto O’Rourke has been one of those out in front of this issue, saying that Trump has made a “complete mess” of the American economy and warning that the false sense of well-being won’t last. Joe Biden hasn’t missed the chance to point out that Trump is “squandering” a growing economy inherited from “the Obama-Biden administration.” Other candidates are remaining more cautious, talking more about how the economy has already failed to help the working class than about where it’s going from here.

There’s the chance that Trump can still ride out the last of the wave. The time between the kind of yield curve inversion that happened this month and the first quarter of a declared recession has averaged two years in the last five recessions. The Trump slump could very well not hit until after Election Day.

But if it does, Trump will be on the hunt for even more people to blame. Maybe even people who have been “deeply disloyal.”