A 'political avalanche' threatens to send Trump campaign into a full-on 'death spiral': analysis

01 August 2024

Polls released in late July or early August have offered some encouraging news for presumptive 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris.

Although the vice president trails Trump by 5 percent in a national Rasmussen poll, a Daily Kos/Civiqs poll finds her ahead by 4 percent nationally. Meanwhile, Bloomberg News/Morning Consult polls of key swing states find Harris ahead by 2 percent in Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada and 11 percent in Michigan.

However, Harris trails Trump by 4 percent in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll of Pennsylvania, where she will be holding a major campaign rally in Philadelphia on August 6 with her running mate — who hasn't been announced yet. The fact that Harris picked Philly for her first rally with her running mate is fueling speculation that her pick will be Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.

In an article published by NJ Advanced Media/NJ.com on August 1, journalist Kevin Manahan lays out some reasons why Trump's campaign may be running into trouble.

"In a political avalanche that threatens to bury Donald Trump," Manahan explains, "the polls already are swinging wildly in Vice President Kamala Harris' favor — and she's been in the presidential race for less than two weeks. Donors and volunteers are holding record Zoom calls while shoveling record-breaking millions of dollars into her campaign's fundraising wheelbarrows."

Manahan adds, "The Kamala Harris Campaign Hits TV With First Ad J.D. Vance is an unequivocal disaster — the GOP vice presidential candidate with the lowest net-approval ratings of all time and falling with each unearthed video that insults women and childless couples. Project 2025, a dystopian blueprint for a Trump Administration, is polling so badly that Trump had to deny he had any knowledge of it, before strongarming the author out of his job and shuttering the operation."

Manahan argues that Trump didn't do his campaign any favor when we "questioned Harris' blackness" during a discussion at the National Association of Black Journalists' convention in Chicago on Wednesday, July 31. And he noted that "many former Republicans and other insiders on social media" are now wondering if a deluge of events could "send Trump’s White House bid into a death spiral."

On X, formerly Twitter, conservative Republican Anthony Scaramucci — a former Trump ally turned scathing critic — posted, "YUGE gaffe today by Trump It was up there with the deplorable comment. It was up there with the 47% comment. It was up there with the binders of women comment and it may have even exceeded all of those terrible day for Donald Trump."

Scaramucci also tweeted, "When polls drop (and they will), Trump is going to go full on racist."

Read Kevin Manahan's full NJ Advance Media/NJ.com article at this link.

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