1 in 4 'non-MAGA Republicans' supporting Harris in must-win PA: Fox News

01 October 2024

Although Pennsylvania has gone Democratic in most of the United States' post-1980s presidential elections, a major exception came in 2016 when Republican Donald Trump defeated Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the Keystone State. But four years later, the Associated Press called the 2020 election for now-President Joe Biden when he carried Pennsylvania, inspiring huge crowds to celebrate Biden's victory in the streets of Center City Philadelphia.

Now, in 2024, the Keystone State is once again shaping up to be a nail biter, with Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris slightly ahead in some Pennsylvania polls and Trump slightly ahead in others. And according to polling from Fox News, anti-Trump Republicans could become a major advantage for Harris in the crucial swing state.

Penn Live's J.D. Prose analyzes recent Pennsylvania polls in an article published on October 1. According to 24Sight News' Tom LoBianco, one of the most important takeaways from Prose's article is Fox News' poll showing that Harris has "successfully peeled off disaffected Republicans" and that a quarter of "non-MAGA Republicans" now support the vice president over Trump in Pennsylvania.

Prose reports, "Polls of likely voters from Muhlenberg College/Morning Call in Allentown and Harrisburg-based Susquehanna Polling & Research both had the race tied at 48 percent and 46 percent, respectively…. A Fox News poll had Harris and Trump tied at 49 percent among likely voters, but Harris leading 50 percent to 48 percent among registered voters. Fox's margin of error was +/- 3.5 points."

Pennsylvania is quite complex politically. Although Philadelphia is dominated by Democrats and hasn't had a GOP mayor since Bernard Samuel left office in January 1952, rural parts of Central Pennsylvania — which many Pennsylvanians jokingly call "Pennsyltucky" — are way more GOP-friendly. And that part of the state has plenty of MAGA Republicans.

But according to Fox News' polling, roughly one in four Pennsylvania Republicans who don't identify as MAGA are now supporting Harris over Trump.

Prose also notes that according to polls, incumbent Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pennsylvania) has a good shot at winning a fourth term. Pennsylvania presently has two Democratic U.S. senators: Casey and John Fetterman.

Prose observes, "As for the U.S. Senate race, Muhlenberg had Democratic Sen. Bob Casey up 46 percent to 42 percent over Republican challenger Dave McCormick, while Susquehanna had Casey up 48 percent to 40 percent. In Muhlenberg's April poll, Casey led 45 percent to 41 percent. Casey’s best results came in the Fox News poll in which he led McCormick 53 percent to 44 percent among likely voters."

Read the full Penn Live article at this link.

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