Here are 5 possible 'October surprises' that could shake up presidential race: analysis

01 October 2024

The Lincoln Project's Stuart Stevens, a veteran GOP consultant and Never Trump conservative who is supporting Democrat Kamala Harris in the United States' 2024 presidential race, has predicted that Harris will enjoy a major surge in the weeks leading up to the election. Stevens, who has worked with everyone from Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) to former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge, has even said that Harris' surge will recall Republican Ronald Reagan overtaking then-President Jimmy Carter in October 1980 polls.

But with the arrival of October 2024, this year's presidential race continues to be quite close in national and battleground state polls. A national Morning Consult poll released on October 1 showed Harris with a 5 percent lead over GOP nominee Donald Trump. Yet a national Quinnipiac University poll from late September showed Harris and Trump tied.

Rasmussen and Fox News polls from late September showed the presidential candidates tied in Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state. Yet Bloomberg News found Harris ahead by 5 percent among Pennsylvania voters.

The arrival of October brings talk of an "October surprise" that could swing the election in either Harris or Trump's direction. And The Hill's Brett Samuels lays out five possibilities in a listicle published on October 1.

Those possibilities, according to Samuels, include: (1) "the emergence of new video or audio," (2) "a major weather event," (3) "more political violence," (4) "another Trump-Harris debate," and (5) "broader war breaks out."

"One of the gravest potential October surprises would be violence targeting candidates, election workers, staff or other officials," Samuels warns. "Trump has been at the center of two attempted assassinations in recent months, ratcheting up fears of political divisions turning to violence. He was grazed by a bullet at a July rally, and an alleged gunman camped out along the perimeter of one of his golf (club) in September before a Secret Service agent fired at him."

Samuels continues, "A Virginia man was arrested in late July for allegedly making death threats against Harris."

In a separate article published by The Hill, reporter Lauren Irwin described 2020 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's fear that an "October surprise" could "distort and pervert" Harris' record.

Clinton recently told "Firing Line" host Margaret Hoover, "So, I don’t know what it's going to be. But it will be something, and we'll have to work very, very hard to make sure that it is exposed as the lie that it is."

Brett Samuels' full listicle for The Hill is available at this link.

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