Policy analysts explain why electoral map looks 'easier for' Harris — all things considered

01 October 2024

Some critics of 2024 GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump have argued that as many negatives as he has — from criminal indictments to Project 2025 to his unpopular policies on abortion and Obamacare — his Democratic rival, Vice Presidential Kamala Harris, should be way ahead in the polls.

But with October's arrival and the election only five weeks away, many polls are still showing a very close race. Some national and battleground state polls are showing Harris with small single-digit leads, while others are showing Trump slightly ahead.

While a national Morning Consult poll released on October 1 showed Harris with a 5 percent lead, national polls released in late September showed Harris ahead by only 1 percent (CNN) or in a dead heat with the former president (Quinnipiac).

But according to Elizabeth Jarosz and Clifford Young — two public opinion/policy specialists at Ipsos — the path to 270 electoral votes "looks easier" for Harris.

During an interview with Salon's Chauncey DeVega, they explained, "It is always best to take the average of the polls instead of looking at any one poll. Applying that approach, we see an extremely close presidential race. It looks like Harris has a slight lead in the Rust Belt states and Nevada. In the end, we believe it will come down to the relative ability of each campaign to win the framing war — 'throw the bums out' because of inflation versus future economic opportunity for all Americans."

Jarosz and Young continued, "Harris is more effective with the latter narrative frame…. In the 2024 election, the major tension is between 'personality' and 'policy.' Donald Trump wins on policy; 2 of the 3 top issues are the economy and immigration where he holds strong leads. But he's not the clear frontrunner because Harris wins on personality."

When DeVega asked Jarosz and Young if they would "rather be" Harris or Trump based on polling data, they responded, "The map looks easier for her."

According to Jarosz and Young, "Her campaign is also firing on all cylinders. But to reiterate, the presidential race is so close, which means that any number of things can happen in the remaining weeks that will determine the final outcome. Both sides understand that the game will be won or lost around the issue of inflation. Right now, Harris is more effective at this than Trump. But there still is a month until Election Day."

Read Salon's full interview at this link.

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