Ex-Bush strategist: 'Optimism ahead' as new poll shows 'Trump lower today' than he was in 2020

18 August 2024

Ahead of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago this week, a new ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll published Sunday shows 2024 Democratic nominee Kamala Harris holds a slight national lead over former President Donald Trump.

Former President George W. Bush strategist Matthew Dowd wrote via X: "Brand new ABC News poll out this am has Harris up 6 over Trump among likely voters. Independents have moved from Trump up by 4 to now Harris up by 11!. Harris favorability is 45/44, net +1. Trump favorability is 35/57, net -22! He is lower today than when he lost in 2020."

Dowd — a former ABC News political analyst — added: "I put this data out regularly not to encourage overconfidence or dance in the end zone but to show we have hope and optimism ahead if we work hard and push consistently until there is no seconds left on the clock."

The Washington Post reports the survey shows "Harris stands at 49 percent to Trump’s 45 percent among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup," and, "When third-party candidates are included in the survey, Harris is at 47 percent and Trump at 44 percent, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 5 percent."

The newspaper emphasizes that despite Harris' "narrow" lead, the poll's results "continue to point to a tight election in November, when seven swing states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — are likely to determine who wins in the electoral college. Other public polls have indicated that Harris has gained ground in most if not all those swing states since Biden left the race, but they, too, show the race in most of those states as being within the range of a normal polling error."

ABC News notes that the collaborative "poll was conducted online via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® Aug. 9-13, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 2,336 adults."

ABC News' full report is available at this link. The Washington Post's report is here (subscription required).

From Your Site Articles