Trump just broke the formula that kept Republicans in power: historian

US President Donald Trump reacts as he speaks to reporters before boarding Air Force One for travel to Mississippi from Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, US, October 26, 2026. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

The blue tsunami was more than a verdict on President Donald Trump, according to historian Heather Cox Richardson. She argued that it marks the end of the Republican formula that has worked for the party for nearly half a century.

Writing in her Substack newsletter, Letters from an American, Richardson traced the GOP’s winning coalition to Richard Nixon, who brought in voters who were anxious about women’s rights advancement and the civil rights movements in the 1960s.

Richardson said Ronald Reagan refined the formula by pairing attacks on government and racially charged rhetoric with promises that slashing taxes and regulations would make everyone prosperous.

“That combination worked — more or less — to attract voters until Trump’s second term tore it apart.”

She argued that the administration’s policies aimed at minorities, immigrants, and women ended up hurting ordinary Americans, and voters noticed.

“Rather than benefiting regular Americans, those policies have hurt them. And administration leaders have been quite open about their intention of using the government to loot the country for themselves and their cronies.”

She noted how rural areas that formed the backbone of MAGA support joined Democratic cities, as the cultural divisions Republicans relied on were moved aside due to anger over corruption and a government that serves the wealthy.

Richardson noted that Democrats have made inroads in the governor’s contests, turning Iowa, Georgia, Ohio, Nevada, and Texas to their side. The new Democratic governors in those states will not be hamstrung by a Republican supermajority in the legislature. Also, Republicans in Kansas, Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio have been unable to hold or regain the kind of supermajorities that would let them override a governor's veto.

She also wrote that Democrats were elected at every level of the ballot, pointing to Texas, where incumbent Senator James Talarico put up a 12-point victory while his gubernatorial counterpart Gina Hinojosa won by 7. Even in districts where Trump had a 14-point margin in 2024, voters handed the Democrats two congressional seats. They also put a Democratic attorney general and four of the state’s supreme court justices in office and changed the makeup of the lower legislative chamber.

She also noted how across the nation, many races were not close. Some were flipped by double digits off the 2024 margins, with some as much as 20, 30, or 40 percent. Observers have used words like “seismic” and “jaw-dropping” to describe what is more of a “tsunami” than a blue wave.

In the end, the 2026 midterms have amounted to a revolution in American politics, she wrote. Michael McDonald, an election scholar, puts the turnout at roughly 124.3 million, or a touch under half of those eligible. It is slightly below the mark set in the 2018 midterms, which saw the highest participation in a midterm since 1914.

Democrats wasted no time signaling what comes next. Rep. Robert Garcia of California, in line to chair the House Oversight Committee, had a message for administration loyalists: “LAWYER UP.” Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon, expected to lead the Senate Finance Committee again, posted simply: “Subpoenas.”

She noted how Trump insisted he would have won big had he been on the ballot.

“The historic nature of this election cannot be overstated. It is a rejection of Trump, who insisted voters should imagine he was on the ballot," she wrote. "But more than that, it is a rejection of the Republican ideology that has driven American politics since the 1980s: the idea that some people are better than others and have the right to rule.”

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