New analysis reveals how Trump began sabotaging GOP before he was president

US President Donald Trump speaks during a midterm campaign rally at Five Flags Center in Dubuque, Iowa, US, November 1, 2026. REUTERS/Evan Vucci

On Monday, the eve of Election Day — when Republicans are predicted to take heavy losses — a new analysis revealed how President Donald Trump began sabotaging his party even before assuming office. According to the top White House and congressional correspondents at Semafor, the potential downfall of the GOP’s Senate majority can be chalked up to a series of specific mistakes made by Trump, all dating back to a fateful decision he made in July 2024 while on the campaign trail.

“The mark Trump made on the midterms began in the summer of 2024, when he selected former Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his running mate,” explains Semafor. “Since then, the president’s personnel and political decisions have reshaped the Senate battleground from what looked like an impenetrable red wall into a toss-up. His decision to pick Vance opened up a special election in Ohio that will by the end of this week cost the GOP hundreds of millions of dollars and potentially a Senate seat.” When Vance gave up his seat to become Vice President, it was filled by then-Ohio Lt. Gov. Jon Husted, who would be forced to defend it two years later. Those two years have come due, and now he’s polling a few points behind his Democratic challenger, former Sen. Sherrod Brown, in a race that has delivered a big hit to the GOP pocketbook. What’s more, Husted had planned on running for Ohio governor, but was replaced by Vivek Ramaswamy, whose disastrous campaign against Democrat Amy Acton has all but ensured her victory.

Once in office, Trump’s “party-boss mentality” saw him oust popular moderates in favor of endorsing unpopular loyalist candidates across the country, expanding the battleground to include deep-red states like North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas. As Semafor explains, Trump “tangled with [Sen. Thom] Tillis (R-NC) over healthcare cuts in 2025, prompting his retirement. [Majority Leader John] Thune (R-SD) said then Tillis ‘knew how to run and win in North Carolina.’ Trump cleared the field for [Michael] Whatley, who is down by a large margin.” After that, “Thune and many sitting GOP senators had hoped to convince Trump to back Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX). But Trump gave Cornyn the cold shoulder after the Texas Republican’s remarks questioning Trump’s viability heading into the 2024 election cycle. Trump instead backed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who won the nomination. Paxton is trailing in most polls while receiving the most air support of any candidate." Something similar happened in South Carolina. “After the death of his longtime ally, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Trump backed Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC), who most senators thought would be an interim senator. Instead, Trump helped launch Graham’s run for a six-year term, even as several other prominent Republicans mounted their own campaigns. Graham defeated conservative Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC), in the primary runoff this summer with Trump’s help, but Graham is now in a toss-up race with Annie Andrews, who is outraising her by astronomical margins.”

Finally, according to Semafor, “Party insiders blame Trump’s tariffs and war with Iran for creating a volatile Senate map that has left seats in red states like Nebraska and Kansas vulnerable.” As one person close to the White House told the outlet, “Every negative for the GOP this cycle is a downstream effect of Iran.” As the economic and diplomatic consequences of Trump’s war and tariffs have become increasingly pronounced, polling has made it clear that voters want to punish the party responsible. Only 33 percent of Americans support the war, while just 37 percent support Trump’s tariffs. As a result, the midterms have largely become a referendum on the war and its economic impacts.

Interestingly enough, notes Semafor, “Trump was very careful with his narrow House majority, even rescinding an administration position for Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), over fears it could cost them a seat. His relationship with the Senate has been much more tempestuous because of his political decisions. Adding further strain has been Trump’s pressure campaign on the Senate to kill the filibuster, pass voting restrictions, and stomach the tariffs and the Iran war.” In light of all this, concludes Semafor, “It’s little surprise that’s all led Republicans to this moment of deep uncertainty.”

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