As Republican lawmakers attempt to rebrand the budget law that slashed $1 trillion for Medicaid to help pay for tax cuts for the rich—unable to ignore the blaring message from angry town hall participants and polls showing Americans do not support the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill Act—research released Friday suggests the GOP should brace for even more outrage from voters across the country.
According to the analysis by the Center for American Progress (CAP), no state or congressional district will be spared from the cuts the OBBBA makes to healthcare, and every district in the US is projected to see a rise in the number of uninsured people by 2034.
"Every member of Congress, regardless of party or geography, will see tens of thousands of their constituents lose coverage under this law," said the group.
CAP's report builds on analysis from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which found last month that the law's Medicaid work requirements, expiration of the Affordable Care Act's enhanced premium tax credits, and termination of reforms that benefit low-income Medicare beneficiaries will increase the number of uninsured Americans by 14.2 million over the next decade.
"Families, communities, and health systems nationwide will feel the consequences of these cuts."
The center-left think tank also expanded on a subsequent KFF report that showed how the 14.2 million figure would be spread out across states, finding that the uninsured rate would rise by at least 3% in 34 states and Washington, DC.
CAP's district-by-district analysis found that congressional districts will have an average of 33,000 more people who are uninsured by 2034 due to the OBBBA's healthcare provisions. Those with more than 30% of their under-65 population enrolled in Medicaid are projected to see particularly large increases in the number of uninsured constituents, with Democratic Rep. Yassamin Ansari's district in Arizona expected to have about 80,000 more uninsured residents by 2034—the most of any district in the country.
Ansari launched an "Accountability Summer" town hall tour in her state in July, holding events in Republican-led districts where she spoke with Arizonans about how their "Republican representatives have failed" them by supporting the OBBBA, in some cases after having expressed concerns about the impact it would have on their constituents.
One district Ansari visited, represented by Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.), is also among the districts expected to see a major increase in the number of uninsured residents, at 54,000.
Other Republicans are expected see people they represent lose their coverage in large numbers due to the law, including Reps. Daniel Newhouse (R-Wash.) and Hal Rogers (R-Ky.). About 66,000 of Newhouse's constituents are projected to lose coverage, along with 64,000 of people in Rogers' district.
Rep. Randy Fine (R-Fla.), who touted the OBBBA as a "generational win for working families," will see 54,000 of his constituents lose their insurance, according to CAP.
The think tank found that California, Florida, and Texas will have the highest increases in their uninsured population, with more than 1 million people in each state losing coverage.
The losses caused by the OBBBA are projected to reverse "more than a decade of progress in expanding coverage," said CAP.
"Every lawmaker will see thousands of constituents lose coverage under this law," added the group. "Families, communities, and health systems nationwide will feel the consequences of these cuts."
In addition to attempting to reframe the OBBBA to boost its popularity, some Republicans are attempting to backpedal on the provision ending ACA tax credits that have helped millions of Americans afford their health coverage, which is scheduled to go into effect at the end of the year.
Reps. Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ), Rob Bresnahan (R-Penn.), and Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) have proposed a bill to extend the credits for one year, hoping to delay until after the midterm elections the provision that could cause some monthly premiums to skyrocket by 75% and leave more than 4 million Americans without health coverage.
"Congressional Republicans voted to rip health coverage from millions of Americans. They don't get brownie points for attempting to kick the can down the road on their own harmful and unpopular agenda because it's convenient for them," said Leor Tal, campaign director for Unrig Our Economy.
"If Republicans in Congress were serious about protecting people's care," added Tal, "they would vote to make these vital healthcare tax credits permanent and they wouldn't have passed the largest cut to Medicaid in history to pay for tax breaks for billionaires."
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