U.S. President Donald Trump delivers an address to the nation about the Iran war at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S. April 1, 2026. Alex Brandon/Pool via REUTERS
President Donald Trump’s crumbling poll numbers are leaving Republicans with fewer places to look for reassurance as the midterm campaign enters its final weeks, according to political analysts.
The i Paper reported Friday that Trump’s weak approval ratings are shaping contests even though he is not on the ballot. Around seven in 10 voters say their view of Trump will factor into their vote, according to a PBS News/NPR/Marist survey the outlet cited.
“This is bad. It’s getting to the point where Republicans can’t even find a silver lining,” Durham University political scientist David Andersen told the i.
The warning comes amid national surveys showing Trump underwater with voters. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Sept. 21 put his approval rating at 32 percent, with 66 percent disapproving. The same poll found Democrats holding an eight-point advantage over Republicans on the congressional ballot.
A New York Times/Siena survey conducted Sept. 8-13 found Trump at 38 percent approval among likely voters and Democrats ahead by roughly nine points in congressional preferences. Only 28 percent approved of Trump’s handling of the affordability crisis, while a majority disapproved of his performance on every major issue tested.
Jason Reifler, a University of Southampton political science professor, told the i that Trump was facing the “worst polling that any incumbent president” approaching a midterm. Andersen said Republicans were also struggling to find an issue where public opinion clearly breaks their way.
The problems for the GOP extend beyond Trump’s plunging poll numbers. Dissatisfaction with the cost of living, tariffs and the continuing war with Iran has contributed to higher fuel prices. Those economic pressure points have given Republican candidates an incentive to emphasize local issues or their own records rather than make their campaigns solely about Trump.
The president, however, has urged Republicans to tie themselves closely to him. At the GOP midterm convention in Dallas, he told delegates to “pretend that I’m on the ballot,” according to the i.
That creates a difficult calculation for candidates in competitive states. Washington Post polling analysis published Thursday found Republican candidates running, on average, about four points ahead of Trump in national and state surveys, suggesting some can outperform the president even while carrying the burden of his low ratings.
Current polling still has important limits as district boundaries, candidate quality, turnoutt and late-moving voters can all change individual races and national generic-ballot numbers do not translate neatly into seats.
But with Election Day approaching, Republicans are confronting a narrower political path to victory. They are left with few choices that may include improving perceptions of Trump and the economy, or convincing voters to judge GOP candidates separately from a president many view negatively.