Trump’s GOP is on the 'verge of collapse' — and only getting worse: conservative

U.S. President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., February 1, 2026. REUTERS/Nathan Howard TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

President Donald Trump’s Republican Party is nearing crisis, driven there by four main sets of problems — and ending the Iran war won’t fix them all, argues Timothy P. Carney at the Washington Examiner.

“Republicans are on the verge of collapse, and it’s mostly President Donald Trump dragging them down,” writes Carney, pointing to standard midterm woes, gas prices and inflation, the Trump family’s “self-enrichment,” and Trump’s polling numbers — including a “collapse” in consumer confidence.

“Trump is less popular with voters than he has ever been,” says Carney, who predicts a likely “tsunami” election in the midterms: Democrats taking the House and gaining seats in the Senate — or even taking the Senate majority if Trump’s popularity and consumer confidence continue down.

Trump’s strength during his first term and first year of his second term derived in part from not engaging in “a war of choice that was distant from U.S. interests.”

But even before the Iran war, polling suggested Trump did not have the country on the right track — not helpful for a party facing tough midterm elections. The “bad polling trends for Republicans and Trump generally started late last year, before the attack on Iran.”

“One year ago, in late May 2025, Americans were almost as likely to say we were on the right track (44%) as the wrong track (51%),” Carney writes. “That 7-point gap has steadily grown for 12 months, and it’s now a 26-point gap, with 60% saying ‘wrong track’ and only 34% saying ‘right track,’ according to the RCP average.”

Carney suggests that the 2028 elections will be determined by candidate strength, but for the 2026 midterm elections Republicans “may not be so lucky” as midterms “are typically the president’s report card, and voters are not happy with the work Trump is turning in.”

He calls it a reasonable assumption that Trump’s “other problems,” which include “stubborn inflation” and the Trump family’s “sketchy business dealings,” are harming the GOP. “This pre-Iran trend also suggests that the numbers won’t simply reverse if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and gas prices fall.”

It’s not just the price of gas at the pump that roils American voters — and is causing problems for Republicans — “so things won’t get better before November. The only question is whether things get worse.”

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