Republican Party insiders have a precise date in mind for when more party members, sick of "daily humiliation," will finally break with President Donald Trump, according the Politico’s politics bureau chief Jonathan Martin.
Martin made an appearance on MS NOW's MorningJoe on Thursday, where he was pressed about the recent high-profile instances of Republicans in Washington abandoning the party or breaking with Trump on key issues. The well-connected bureau chief claimed to have spoken with a GOP senator who had a very specific time in mind for when many more Republicans might break rank with the president, and it all has to do with next year's all-important midterm elections.
“Quite frankly, I talked to a former GOP senator,” Martinsaid. “[They] said two words to me: filing deadlines."
"Why do filing deadlines matter?" he continued. "Because what the senator was talking about was the filing deadlines for primaries next year. Which is to say, when that clears, when that passes, when these lawmakers know who is or is not running against them in primaries next year, then you’ll see even more freedom, even more independence.”
Trump's most common response to members of his own party defying his will has been to suggest that somebody run against them in their next primary race, and offer to endorse someone who does so. Despite Trump's waning approval rating overall, his endorsements are still seen as extremely valuable in Republican primary races for things like the House and Senate. Before Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green announced her early resignation from the House, Trump had branded her a "traitor" for breaking with his stances and suggested somebody primary her.
Once the filing deadlines have passed, members of Congress will be able to gauge how much of a threat their challengers are and use that information to determine how much they can defy Trump. There would also not then be the possibility that Trump could back a new candidate against them if there is not already a serious challenger, at least not for 2026.
“These guys care about their seats and about their reelections,” Martin explained. “If they see that they don’t have a primary challenger by a date certain next year, 2026, they can start saying what they actually think about what [conservative commentator] George Will calls the ‘moral slum’ of this administration.”
Primary filing deadlines vary by state. In some places, like Arkansas and Illinois, the deadlines already passed last month. In others, like Delaware and Louisiana, the deadlines are as far-off as July.
Martin also touched on the frustrations Republicans in Washington are feeling about the laundry list of scandals coming out of the Trump administration, which many feel obligated to defend or downplay for the time being, the most notable currently being Pete Hegseth's boat strike debacle.
“I think it’s one more rock on the back of the members of Congress that they’re carrying up the hill,” Martin said. “The hill is Mount Trump, and the hill is having to burden this daily humiliation.”