U.S. President Donald Trump in The Hague, Netherlands June 25, 2025. REUTERS/Yves Herman
On his show "Real Time," political comedian Bill Maher argued that Democrats are "losing" the gerrymandering battle in the 2026 midterms — and he fears that Republicans could hold the U.S. House of Representatives despite President Donald Trump's unpopularity in countless polls. But Politico's Jonathan Martin, on the other hand, believes that intense GOP gerrymandering poses a substantial political risk for Republicans.
Martin notes that in at least five out of eight Republicans Trump was angry with recently lost state legislature primaries in Indiana, but Martin stresses that GOP primaries and the general election are two very different things.
"The convergence of his successful intimidation campaign in Indiana and the Supreme Court's termination of majority-minority districts will tempt the GOP to lunge for more seats," Martin writes in Politico. "But they do so at their own risk. Not only may Republicans unwittingly create more competitive races for their own members, they will energize Democrats and set back their party in ways that will linger beyond this president. To you Republicans coveting new seats and considering whether to move forward: caveat emptor."
Martin adds, "Let's give Trump his due, though: Thanks to his singular style and the failures of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the president forged a 2024 coalition that breathed new life into the GOP. He made inroads with younger voters and expanded his base of working-class whites to include more racial minorities of modest means. Had Trump installed a Cabinet and pursued an agenda to retain these voters, he would've remade the Republican Party and shattered the Democratic Party. Of course, that's not what happened and was never going to happen given who he is."
"Pre-adolescent-in-chief" Trump, Martin argues, didn't do Republicans any favor when he "frittered away" the gains of his 2024 campaign.
"Given Trump's unpopularity, the price at the pump and the precedent of most every modern midterm," Martin says, "this was already shaping up to be a forbidding election year for Republicans…. As if liberals weren’t already eager to vote."