Campaigning in this state 'could cost Trump elsewhere': report

29 September 2024

When Kamala Harris emerged as the presumptive 2024 Democratic nominee in July, Donald Trump's "path to winning a 270-vote Electoral College majority" became much more difficult.

Newsweek reported that a University of North Florida (UNF) Public Opinion Research Lab poll published that month showed Trump "ahead of Harris by seven points."

Now, a new September 2024 poll by the Independent Center and The Bullfinch Group "showed Trump had a 1-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Florida (48 percent to 47)," according to Newsweek.

"Thomas Gift, an associate professor of political science and director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, previously said that while Harris 'looks likely' to lose Florida, Trump may still need to work harder to appeal to voters in the state than he would like," the news outlet reports.

"The mere fact that Trump may have to campaign vigorously in Florida could divert resources from true swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan," told Newsweek.

"Even if Harris loses Florida, which certainly looks likely, this could cost Trump elsewhere if he's forced to devote scarce time, resources, and energy into shoring up his lead in the Sunshine State."

Although Democrats lost Florida voters in 2022, the Tampa Bay Times reports that it's possible for the party to pick up traction in upcoming elections.

"Democrats remain convinced they are on the voters’ side of the issues," the Tampa Bay Times reports. "They point to voters raising the minimum wage in 2020 and the polling popularity of this year’s constitutional amendments on abortion access and legal marijuana."

The newspaper notes that if Democratic lawmakers "are to derive hope from any part of the state, it might be from the Orlando area, which has produced promising young leaders during the Trump era." US Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-FL) — an Orlando native — became the first Gen Z House member in 2022.

"The people are on our side in terms of policy but not politics," Frost said. "So how do we solve that? We talk about our policy more."

State Rep. Anna Eskamani (D-Orlando) — who flipped her district four years before Frost's victory — told the newspaper "that sometimes Republicans make her think of 'The Crown' on Netflix, a show where characters have their own ambitions but acquiesce without question to their" leader.

"Everyone gets in line to do what the crown says," Eskamani emphasized. "If you don’t get in line, you don’t really have a place in the Republican Party."

Newsweek's full report is available here. Tampa Bay Times' report is here.

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