U.S. President Donald Trump aboard Air Force One, March 15, 2026. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
Once known as an unpredictable swing state that former President Barack Obama carried in both 2008 and 2012, Florida has turned increasingly Republican in recent years and become a major source of frustration for Democrats. Gov. Ron DeSantis ran a far-right campaign and was reelected by roughly 19 percent in the 2022 midterms; then, in 2024, Donald Trump defeated Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris in Florida by roughly 13 percent.
Republicans have been seriously dominating Florida politics. But on Tuesday night, March 24, two Democrats prevailed in special elections for Florida House of Representatives seats in GOP-friendly districts: Brian Nathan in the Tampa area, Emily Gregory in Mar-a-Lago's own district. Gregory only won by 2 percent, but she did so in a district that Trump won by double digits in 2024.
In an article published by The Bulwark on March 25, Never Trump conservative Bill Kristol emphasizes that the importance of Nathan and Gregory's victories goes way beyond Florida — as they are symptomatic of a broader "rebuke" of Trump's policies.
"To add a well-deserved insult to the electoral injury," Kristol argues, "House District 87 includes Mar-a-Lago. It's Trump’s home district…. In any case, Tuesday's secret ballots in Florida were a rebuke to Donald Trump. And at the national level, a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed Monday had Trump's approval rating at 36 percent — down 4 points in the past week — with 62 percent of Americans disapproving. This was Trump's worst showing in this poll since he returned to the White House."
Kristol continues, "Are things going to get better soon for Trump? It seems doubtful."
The Never Trumper predicts that the war with Iran will only add to Trump's unpopularity if it expands.
"Trump’s war is unpopular," Kristol writes. "The same Reuters/Ipsos poll showed 35 percent approval and 61 percent disapproval of the strikes against Iran…. Meanwhile, Democrats forced another vote in the Senate yesterday to require congressional approval of Trump's war. Republicans defeated the measure. So we now have a major war, well into its fourth week, which Trump is threatening to expand to a ground war — all being done without congressional approval, and all the sole responsibility of Donald Trump and his Republican Party."