Defense expert details the 'theocratic fascist dystopia' that could follow 2024 election

22 March 2024

Journalist/author Brynn Tannehill, a former U.S. Navy aviator and defense analyst, has been sounding the alarm about the possible violence and unrest that the United States' 2024 presidential election could bring.

In a disturbing article published by Dame Magazine on February 24, Tannehill detailed the authoritarian actions that GOP nominee Donald Trump — judging from his rhetoric during campaign speeches — could take if he defeats President Joe Biden in November and returns to the White House in January 2025. While that piece detailed some frightening scenarios in a second Trump presidency, a more recent Tannehill article describes four possible scenarios for the November election and the months that follow it.

In a listicle published by The New Republic on March 22, Tannehill explains, "In the coming election, there are four realistic outcomes that depend on who ends up in the White House and how they get there."

Those possible outcomes, according to Tannehill, are: (1) "Biden wins the popular vote and Electoral College, and Democrats win the House," (2) "Biden wins the popular vote and Electoral College, and Republicans win the House," (3) "Trump loses the popular vote but wins the Electoral College," and (4) "Trump wins the popular vote and the Electoral College."

Scenario #1, according to Tannehill, would be "the best-case scenario for Democrats and probably the country" and "looks like a repeat of 2020."

"Trump and Republicans will allege fraud and rigged elections," Tannehill explains. "They'll try to block certification at the county, state, and federal levels, resulting in court cases that generally go nowhere…. After chaos that looks a lot like 2020 — only more intense, widespread, and gaining more support from state-level Republicans — Biden gets sworn in on January 20, 2025, to govern a nation where over half the states don't accept his legitimacy."

In Scenario #2, Tannehill warns, it is "very likely" that "Speaker Mike Johnson will refuse to certify the election, invoking the 12th Amendment to decide the election."

In Scenarios #3 and #4, Trump would return to the White House on January 20, 2025. Tannehill fears that during a second term, Trump would emulate Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and other authoritarians he openly admires.

"No matter how I map it out," Tannehill laments, "the election cycle either ends in chaos and violence, balkanization, or a descent into a modern theocratic fascist dystopia. There is no scenario in which everything turns out 'just fine.' Even in my first scenario, the best case for Democrats (and democrats), nullification of Biden policies by red states is rampant, and the union slowly dissolves."

Tannehill continues, "The only scenario that results in a peaceful transfer of power is the one that leads almost inevitably toward the worst possible long-term outcome: a fascist nation, allied with the globe's worst dictators, governed by religious fundamentalists yearning for Armageddon, while armed with enough strategic nuclear weapons to give God a run for his money."

Read Brynn Tannehill's full New Republic article at this link.

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