Trump’s possible connection to convicted sexual offender Jeffrey Epstein — who allegedly died by suicide in prison — may be the one thing that undermines his base of support and causes his Republican loyalists in Congress to turn on him. This makes it politically explosive.
With Congress now returning from August recess and the media and Congress looking into “Epsteingate,” the issue will either grow or disappear in the next few weeks.
Roughly half of the country now believes that Trump was involved in crimes committed by Epstein, according to recent polls. And more than two-thirds believes that the Trump administration is hiding information about Epstein.
Before the 2024 presidential election, both Trump and JD Vance called for the release of files related to Epstein. On February 21, Attorney General Pam Bondi, in an appearance on Fox News, said the Epstein client list was “sitting on my desk right now to review.”
But the Trump regime still hasn’t released any trove of “Epstein files.” In fact, on July 7, the Justice Department released a memo saying it had found “no incriminating ‘client list’” for Epstein, directly contradicting Bondi.
Then came publication by The Wall Street Journal of what it said was a risqué birthday note Trump wrote to celebrate Epstein’s 50th birthday, prompting Trump to claim that “the supposed letter they printed by President Trump to Epstein was a FAKE. These are not my words, not the way I talk. Also, I don’t draw pictures.” The next day, Trump filed a defamation lawsuit against Journalover its coverage of his relationship with Epstein, including the birthday note that Trump says he didn't write.
Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche recently interviewed Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein’s co-defendant who was convicted of sex trafficking minors and sentenced to 20 years in prison. Late Friday, the Justice Department released transcripts of that interview in which Maxwell praises Trump, claims she never saw Trump engage in improper or illegal acts during his long friendship with Epstein, and that there’s no hidden list of powerful clients.
Maxwell’s credibility is questionable. She has a big incentive to tell Trump and his lackeys exactly what they want to hear because she has been trying to overturn or reduce her sentence. Right after her interview she was transferred to a minimum-security prison, a highly unusual move for a convicted sex offender.
Meanwhile, the House Oversight Committee has received the first tranche of the Justice Department’s documents in response to its subpoena for all Epstein-related files. Democrats on the Committee claim that fewer 3 percent of the documents are new.
“Epsteingate” has all the hallmarks of a cover-up. Will it bring Trump down? Here are three likely scenarios:
1. Epsteingate keeps growing until it reveals a “smoking gun” that brings Trump down. Assume Trump continues to try to deflect attention from his connection with Epstein by, for example, occupying several American cities and threatening war with Venezuela. Yet the more he tries, the more evidence of his involvement with Epstein mounts. Eventually, a “smoking gun” emerges that forces even Trump loyalists in the House and Senate to vote to impeach and convict him.
2. Nothing comes of it, although it continues to percolate. Periodically, a damaging headline emerges, as more evidence comes out about Trump’s close connections to Epstein. But Trump and his lackeys continue to deflect attention from the stories. His loyalists in Congress refuse to probe any deeper into the issue. He distracts the media with so many controversial neofascist maneuvers that the stories never become a full-blown threat to Trump.
3. The whole Epstein story is a distraction from Trump’s neofascist moves. In reality, the Epstein story is a continuing distraction from what Trump is really doing — his takeover of the nation’s public and private sectors and his alliance with Putin to carve up the world. Every time a new story emerges about the connection between Trump and Epstein, the Trump regime takes more initiatives that violate the laws and the Constitution, but they do so not to distract from his Epstein connection but to take advantage of the public’s obsession with Epstein to bury the regime’s horrific moves.
Hence, this week’s question: Will Jeffrey Epstein finally take Trump down?
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Robert Reich is a professor of public policy at Berkeley and former secretary of labor. His writings can be found at https://robertreich.substack.com/