Revealed: The strategy shift that ensures Trump’s hand-picked candidates 'sail to victory'

U.S. President Donald Trump at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, U.S., June 19, 2026. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz

Thanks to President Donald Trump, some prominent Republicans — including Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-Louisiana) and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Kentucky) — will be leaving Congress in 2027. All of them were voted out of office via GOP primaries when Trump endorsed MAGA challengers. Many of Trump's critics are pointing out that Republican primaries and the general election are two very different things; even so, Trump's endorsements are — according to National Public Radio (NPR) reporter Stephen Fowler — doing a lot to shape the Republican Party in the 2026 midterms.

"Few things in modern Republican politics are as powerful as a Truth Social post from President Trump offering his 'Complete and Total Endorsement' of a candidate running for office," Fowler explains in a late June article for NPR. "Since his first term in office began in 2017, Trump has offered his seal of approval more than 1000 times in House, Senate and governor's races. An NPR analysis of who Trump endorsed and when — and what happened in those races — sheds new light on how Trump has evolved as kingmaker in the Republican Party."

Fowler adds, "NPR's analysis finds Trump has shifted his endorsement strategy in a way that effectively clears the field for his chosen candidates: announcing his support earlier than ever and backing more incumbents in safe seats who sail to victory."

Fowler notes that contrasts between Trump's endorsements in the 2018 midterms and his endorsements in 2026.

"In the 2018 midterms," the NPR reporter explains, "the average Trump endorsement in a primary came about seven weeks before that election. In 2026, that number is closer to seven months. That means the average endorsement in this midterm cycle has come more than a full year before the November general election, compared to about three months before in 2018. An increasing share of Trump's endorsements go to incumbents — about two-thirds of his overall total in these races since 2017 and nearly 75 percent of the announcements this cycle."

Fowler notes the type of rhetoric that Trump, in addition to "Complete and Total Endorsement," typically uses with his endorsements on Truth Social — for example, "HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!" in all aps, or "He will fight hard."

"Sometimes, Republicans that Trump previously endorsed did let him down, and the president has moved to selectively endorse challengers to unseat them," Fowler observes. "This year, his preferred candidates ousted Texas Sen. John Cornyn, Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy and Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie. There have been notable exceptions to Trump's strategy — and notable defeats. In the last month, Trump endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra to be Iowa's GOP governor nominee just four days before the primary. Feenstra narrowly lost."

Fowler adds, "He backed Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones nine months before the state's gubernatorial primary and saw him lose this week in a runoff to billionaire health care executive Rick Jackson."

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