Many polls released in March showed the Democratic Party struggling badly from an approval standpoint. The number of U.S. voters who held a "favorable" view of the Democratic Party in March ranged from 31 percent (Quinnipiac) to 39 percent (YouGov) to 37 percent (Yahoo News). And yet, Democratic candidates have been enjoying a series of victories in special elections in 2026 — even in some red states.

Two of those victories came on Tuesday, March 24, when Democrats Emily Gregory and Brian Nathan won Florida State Legislature races in GOP-friendly districts. Gregory won in the district where President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort is located.

MS NOW's Ryan Teague Beckwith, in an April 1 opinion column, stresses that these victories don't mean the Democratic Party is growing in popularity but rather, indicate that many conservative voters are so frustrated that they are staying home on Election Day.

"Last Tuesday," Beckwith explains, "the Democratic candidate won the state legislative district that includes Trump's Palm Beach estate, Mar-a-Lago; beat a Republican candidate whom Trump had just wholeheartedly endorsed, flipping the district from GOP control; and had a 2-point winning margin in a district Trump won by 17 points in 2024. After her win, Gregory told MS NOW that she was 'pretty shocked' and 'having a fairly out-of-body experience'…. Even apart from the election's unusually direct tie to Trump, though, there's a reason why special elections like Gregory's — and another in Florida that flipped a state Senate seat Monday — get such outsize attention."

Beckwith continues, "Research shows they really are predictive of what may happen in the midterm elections, but not for the reason you may think."

Gregory's victory over Trump-backed Republican Jon Maples, Beckwith argues, reflects GOP voters in Florida sitting out the election — not Republicans taking a liking to Democrats.

"Since the 2024 election," the MS NOW columnist writes, "Democrats have flipped 30 seats that were held by Republicans everywhere from New Hampshire to Texas, including a state Senate seat in Florida declared on Monday, according to a tally by The New York Times. For their part, Republicans have not flipped any Democratic seats. That's a bad sign for Republicans running in November, but not because their supporters have changed their mind about voting for them. It's because their supporters have changed their mind about voting at all."

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