Legal expert Norm Eisen lays out the sentence Trump could face if convicted in Manhattan

So far, seven jurors have been selected in former President Donald Trump's hush money/falsifying business records trial. And Justice Juan Merchan has indicated that opening arguments could start as soon as Monday, April 22.

Trump critics ranging from conservative attorney George Conway to Michael Cohen (Trump's former personal attorney and fixer and a key witness for the prosecution) believe that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg Jr. has a very strong case against the presumptive 2024 GOP presidential nominee. But it remains to be seen what the jurors will ultimately decide.

In an op-ed/essay published by the New York Times on April 18, attorney/author Norm L. Eisen examines the type of sentence Trump could receive if convicted on any of the 34 charges he is facing in Bragg's case — and how complicated things could get if Trump is convicted yet defeats President Joe Biden in November.

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"A review of thousands of cases in New York that charged the same felony suggests something striking: If Mr. Trump is found guilty, incarceration is an actual possibility," Eisen explains. "It's not certain, of course, but it is plausible. Jury selection has begun, and it's not too soon to talk about what the possibility of a sentence, including a jail sentence, would look like for Mr. Trump, for the election and for the country — including what would happen if he is reelected."

Eisen stresses that although Bragg's office is prosecuting "the first criminal trial of a former president in American history," other cases in New York State involving "falsifying business records" merit examination.

"To be sure, for a typical first-time offender charged only with run-of-the-mill business record falsification, a jail sentence would be unlikely," Eisen notes. "On the other hand, Mr. Trump is being prosecuted for 34 counts of conduct that might have changed the course of American history…. Mr. Bragg alleges that Mr. Trump concealed critical information from voters — paying hush money to suppress an extramarital relationship — that could have harmed his campaign…. If proved, that could be seen not just as unfortunate personal judgment, but also, as Justice Juan Merchan has described it, an attempt 'to unlawfully influence the 2016 presidential election.'"

If Trump is found guilty, Eisen points out, Merchan has a variety of sentencing options.

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"What this all suggests is that a term of imprisonment for Mr. Trump, while far from certain for a former president, is not off the table," Eisen writes. "If he receives a sentence of incarceration, perhaps the likeliest term is six months — although he could face up to four years, particularly if Mr. Trump chooses to testify, as he said he intends to do, and the judge believes he lied on the stand. Probation is also available, as are more flexible approaches like a sentence of spending every weekend in jail for a year."

Eisen adds, "We will likely know what the judge will do within 30 to 60 days of the end of the trial, which could run into mid-June. If there is a conviction, that would mean a late summer or early fall sentencing. Justice Merchan would have to wrestle in the middle of an election year with the potential impact of sentencing a former president and current candidate."

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Norm L. Eisen's full New York Times op-ed/essay is available at this link (subscription required).