Axios political reporter Hans Nichols on Sunday detailed a theory among economists and Wall Street investors that wonders what the “barometer” is for President Donald Trump’s economic policy — considering the president doesn’t have to worry about reelection during his second administration.
CNN’s Manu Raju and Jeff Zeleny noted the president, reacting to market fluctuations in the wake of his on-again-off-again tariffs against Mexico and Canada, claimed he’s “not looking at the markets."
“I think anyone who has watched Donald Trump for a long time knows that not true,” Zeleny said.
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As Raju noted, Stanford University economist Nicholas Bloom told the Associate Press he has “an increasing fear we will enter into what may become known as the Trump recession. Ongoing policy turbulence and a tariff war could tip the U.S. economy into its first recession in five years.”
Nichols noted “there's always the potential of recession,” telling Raju economists predicted with “100 percent certainty” there would be a recession under former President Joe Biden.
“And we didn’t,” Nichols said. “That's not to say that everything's fine in the economic data, there are a lot of warning signs. Jobless claims are ticking up. Unemployment report was a little soft. I think the big question that we're asking ourselves at this table is, is there any real prospect of Trump doing a course correction?"
“There's this theory, especially up in Wall Street, that an unbound Trump who doesn't have to run for reelection isn't as concerned about the markets as he was in his first term,” Nichols continued. “I don't know if that's true, but that's a theory out there. So if the markets aren't going to be a regulator on the president, then we get to elections. But those are long ways away — November — and then the midterms again, we're looking at almost two years, which is a lot of weeks in those two years. “
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“To be clear, I don't know if he's he shrugged that off as sort of the barometer on his presidency,” Nichols added. “I just think there's a theory out there. If that's not the barometer, … if those instruments, he's not looking at, what sort of territory are we in? And I don't know the answer to that question.”
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