'Starting to falter': Economy likely to 'tank' under Trump — Here’s why

23 December 2024

During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump relentlessly attacked President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris on the economy and blamed them for inflation.

But the United States has enjoyed low unemployment rates under Biden's watch. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the country's unemployment rate was 4.2 percent in November.

The New Republic's Timothy Noah is not optimistic about what lies ahead economically after President-elect Trump begins his second term.

In an article published on December 23, Noah lays out some reasons he believes the U.S. economy is likely to "tank" under Trump.

"Donald Trump's election provides a useful occasion to examine the difference between what rich people want and what constitutes a thriving economy," Noah explains. "The stock market, which is where rich people live, has been climbing since Election Day…. The economy, on the other hand, is starting to falter. The Fed ratcheted back future rate cuts because Trump keeps threatening to slap tariffs on every conceivable import."

Noah draws a distinction between the "rich-people ecosystem" and the real U.S. economy, noting that the investment-oriented Vanguard Group "is worried that Trump's trade policies will increase so-called 'core' inflation, or inflation minus volatile food and energy costs."

"Under Biden," Noah notes, "real median and real average wages have been rising for two and a half years. Of course, these are all predictions; we can’t know precisely what’s coming in 2025. But my own view is that these respectable calculations err on the side of optimism. The pros predict that the economy will fare somewhat worse."

Noah continues, "Freed of their imperative to give every benefit of the doubt, I believe the economy will tank. Your investments may appreciate in value, which is all the oligarchs really care about. But this time next year, I doubt your boss will promise you a raise for 2026. Instead, he may tell you to clean out your desk."

Timothy Noah's full article for The New Republic is available at this link.

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