U.S. President Donald Trump gestures as he announces a deal with Pfizer to sell drugs at lower prices, in the Oval office of the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., September 30, 2025. REUTERS/Ken Cedeno
Although the United States' 2024 presidential election was quite close, Donald Trump made enough gains with Latinos, Generation Z, Independents and others to get past the finish line. Trump won the popular vote for the first time in 2024, defeating Democratic nominee Kamala Harris by roughly 1.5 percent nationally. And his emphasis on economic issues, according to polls, helped him close the deal.
But according to Politico reporter Sam Sutton, Trump's 2024 gains may be in danger if voters don't see results on the economy.
"President Donald Trump's surprising performance among Black Americans and younger voters helped him win the popular vote in the 2024 election," Sutton explains in an article published on October 2. "Those constituencies are still waiting for a return on their investment. The unemployment rate for Americans between the ages of 16 and 24 has jumped to 10.5 percent from 9 percent since Trump returned to the White House, a period that coincided with a marked decline in their participation in the labor force. Black joblessness has also climbed, with federal workforce cuts and a broad slowdown in hiring contributing to the rise. And both groups saw their paychecks drop through the first half of the year, despite an acceleration in weekly earnings for workers overall."
Sutton adds, "Trump notched impressive levels of support within those communities, including Hispanics, that have traditionally voted Democratic, but now, his job-approval ratings are tumbling among all three groups. Those voters may be less likely to show up to back GOP congressional candidates next year if he fails to deliver on the high wages and work opportunities that he pledged throughout the campaign."
GOP strategist Shermichael Singleton is expressing concerns about the 2026 midterms.
Singleton, a former adviser to Dr. Ben Carson — who served as secretary of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) during Trump's first presidency — told Politico, "Their overall performance (with) Black men, younger voters will holistically depend upon the overall health of the economy. In terms of whether or not we can rely on those groups in November? I hope to God we can. And I'm hopeful that the economy will continue to improve. But I don't know."
According to Milan Singh, founder and director of the Yale Youth Poll, the "evidence" suggests that Trump is now struggling with Gen-Z and Millennial voters.
Singh told Politico, "There's a good bit of evidence that Trump is underwater on certain economic issues and underwater with young people. The question is whether those two things are connected. My guess is that they are."
Read Sam Sutton's full article for Politico at this link.