'Not looking great out there': Analysts warn this unexpected indicator predicts Trump slump

Bloomberg reports falling cardboard box sales are starting to worry analysts about consumer spending in the Trump economy.

“It’s just not happening, and they have no control over it,” said Adam Josephson, a former sell-side analyst who covers the paper and packaging sector. “[Across industries] all the measures I track are pointing in a not-very-good direction.”

Bloomberg reports U.S. box shipments to retailers — for the purpose of packaging new purchases — “fell to the lowest second-quarter reading since 2015, according to data from Fibre Box Association.”

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Meanwhile, Memphis-based International Paper Co., one of the world’s largest pulp and paper companies, reported a 5 percent drop in daily U.S. box shipments in the same quarter compared to a year ago. Bloomberg reports International Paper recently announced that it will close four facilities, including a mill that helped keep a small town alive in Louisiana. Paper company Smurfit Westrock announced plans to shutter one of its own mills in Iowa.

“In short, it’s not looking great out there for box manufacturers,” reports Bloomberg reporter Ilena Peng.

“In a country where consumer spending makes up almost 70 percent of the economy, any retrenchment in retail activity tends to put economy watchers and government officials on alert,” reports Bloomberg. And while the strength of the highly seasonal cardboard box industry “isn’t necessarily a one-to-one proxy for retail spending,” like beauty-shop outlays or consumer sentiment, it “can flash early signals when things start to go amiss.”

Brett House, a professor of economics at Columbia Business School, told Bloomberg that boxes aren’t usually ordered far in advance, so they can offer a “nearly real-time indicator” of buying and manufacturing activity in the U.S. economy.

Bloomberg claims most of the 2025 drop in packaging demand “appears to be tied to President Donald Trump’s mixed messaging on tariffs” because companies can’t predict how the levies will affect costs and long-term demand for their finished products.

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“They’re not stocking up on bulky packaging while they wait to find out,” according to Bloomberg.

UPS CEO Carol Tomé told analysts that the small-package market in the most recent quarter was “unfavorably impacted by U.S. consumer sentiment that was near historic lows.”

Organic growth in consumer goods “is just not happening,” said Ryan Fox, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst, adding that the rise in “buy-two-get-two” promotions to drive volumes at grocery stores is “never a great sign for demand.”

Read the full Bloomberg report at this link.