Expect an 'erratic path for policy' under second Trump presidency: expert

In a Monday, January 8 op-ed for In These Times, policy expert Max B. Sawicky predicts a second Donald Trump presidency could be disastrous for the US economy.

He writes, "Presently all signs point to a good year for the economy, and bequeathing this to Trump at the end of 2024 will help him, just as [ex-President Barack] Obama’s record when he left office helped boost Trump in 2017 and after. Yet trade war theatrics, domestic spending cuts, and saber-rattling, or worse, with respect to Iran would also likely dampen economic outcomes in 2025 and the years ahead, if the former president comes back into power."

Sawicky writes:

Republicans have tended to indulge immigration for the sake of recruiting cheap labor. Restricting immigration will make some employers unhappy. 'Closing the border' could mean chaos, from the standpoint of routine commerce. The U.S. does quite a lot of business with Mexico.

But once again, it’s a new day. Racism-infected demonization of immigrants has become one of the GOP’s principal selling points. It may even have something to do with reported increases in Trump’s support from voters of color, especially men.

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He also notes:

A bit more obscure will be the fate of the humble U.S. Postal Service. Biden has apparently been too busy to dump Trump’s appointee, the toxic, corrupt Postmaster-General Louis DeJoy. Pressure to privatize the USPS will likely revive as Trump transforms its Board of Governors. The Federal Aviation Administration could face similar threats.

There remain many additional questions. What about Social Security and Medicare? We know the old Republican Party wanted to cut them down. Trump has danced around this. Obamacare would almost certainly be a goner, with Medicaid under dire threat. And we would likely also wave goodbye to Biden’s caps on certain prescription drugs (as meager as they may be).

Yet, the retired economist adds, "If the most dire predictions of a second Trump term with regard to using the Department of Justice and law enforcement to target his political opponents are borne out, economic policy could end up being among the least of our worries."

Still, he adds, "I would expect an erratic path for policy, which is what we observed in the first Trump term, except for continuous cruelty directed at immigrants, people of color, LGBTQI persons and women."

Sawicky emphasizes, "Today, structural inequities persist, the housing market is in trouble and we still haven’t built back better. These are all good cases for Biden and the Democrats to run on a clear plan of supporting working people and creating a more fair economy in the coming elections."

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Sawicky's full op-ed is available at this link.