President Donald Trump looks on as he speaks to members of the media aboard Air Force One en route to Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, March 29, 2026. REUTERS Elizabeth Frantz
President Donald Trump has gotten fond of using one particular "trick" to fool the global markets into acting like the economy is trending in the right direction, but according to a new analysis from The i Paper, that trick is now running headlong into its expiration date.
With the midterms set to arrive in mere weeks, Trump and the GOP are facing a voter backlash crisis as gas and diesel prices remain stubbornly high as a direct result of the president's Iran war, making longstanding concerns about affordability even worse as the cost of travel and transportation ripple out to the costs of everything else.
Writing for The i Paper on Sunday, reporter and columnist James Ball explained that Trump has gotten comfortable using the promise of an impending peace deal with Iran to convince global oil and stock markets to rally in his favor, even as no meaningful or durable deal emerged.
"[Time] and again, Trump would promise that a peace deal or a ceasefire to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was going to be signed any day now. Time and again, global markets believed him. For most of the year, oil prices have been higher, but not dramatically so. Traders genuinely seemed to believe Trump would have the Iran war wrapped up long before the midterms – and, crucially, long before the northern hemisphere entered the winter months."
He added: "As a famous TV show once said, winter is coming. Countries have spent most of the year burning their oil and gas reserves, and they are now running low. The Strait of Hormuz isn’t open, and for a time the east-west pipeline across Saudi Arabia wasn’t working, either. Suddenly, the prospect of oil and gas shortages in the dead of winter looks all too real."
In the face of such a looming disaster, Ball noted that Trump "isn’t managing to promise peace deals quite as often as he used to," even as he tries to still "sound positive" about the war. His most recent claim is that a deal will be reached shortly after the midterms, "leading even the most credulous of observers to wonder why Trump would delay a popular peace deal until after ballots were cast." Left with little in the way of logic to grab on to, they have concluded "that maybe he doesn’t have a plan to end his oil crisis, after all."
"Most Americans are already deeply unhappy with Donald Trump and his administration’s performance, including millions of the people who voted for him just two years ago," Ball concluded. "But we may have seen nothing yet: if Trump doesn’t magic up a real deal, and soon, oil and gas will soar, inflation will rise with it, and his popularity will explore still new depths. Trump’s 'trust me' trick has got him through the summer. It will take much more to get Trump – and America – through the winter."