U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 16, 2026. REUTERS/Jessica Koscielniak
Before he dropped out of the United States' 2024 presidential race, then-President Joe Biden hoped that promoting "Bidenomics" would propel him to victory. The U.S., Biden stressed in speeches, enjoyed record-low unemployment under his watch. And liberal economist Paul Krugman repeatedly praised Biden's record on job creation.
But GOP nominee Donald Trump hammered Biden and then-Vice President Kamala Harris relentlessly on inflation, which was a major source of frustration to voters, and promised to lower prices "on Day 1." And that messaging worked. When Trump narrowly defeated Democratic nominee Harris and won the national popular vote by roughly 1.5 percent, countless Trump voters cited the economy as the main reason they supported him.
In an op-ed published by the Washington Post on April 21, however, Ryan Bourne of the Cato Institute — a libertarian think tank — argues that what was Trump's greatest strength in 2024, the economy, is now his greatest weakness.
"Just 29 percent of Americans approve of the president's handling of the area, while almost two-thirds — 64 percent — disapprove, an Economist/YouGov poll found," Bourne explains. "Discontent with the highest inflation since 1981 propelled Trump back into office in 2024. But now, it's become a political albatross of his own."
Bourne cites the war with Iran, high gas prices and tariffs as key factors in Trump's unpopularity.
"The recent drop in his approval on inflation, from minus 28 in early February, probably reflects the Iran war's impact on gas prices, which pushed the inflation rate in March to 3.3 percent — the highest since September 2023," Bourne observes. "Trump's tariffs, likewise. have raised input costs and consumer prices, while his pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates — combined with his comfort with massive federal deficits — risks investors' faith in the government's commitment to price stability. These signature policies help explain why Trump's slide started long before the war."
Bourne continues, "His standing on inflation declined steadily throughout 2025, from a net favorable rating of six percentage points at the time of his inauguration to Biden-worthy lows that predate the attack on Tehran. The deeper explanation, though, is that voters remain furious at the rise in costs from the inflationary period of 2021 to 2025. Since Trump cannot reverse those high prices, their disillusionment has grown."
The Cato Institute libertarian notes that according to December 2025 polling from Echelon Insights, 80 percent of likely midterms voters believed that Trump would lower prices after he returned to the White House.
"Grocery costs, utility bills and mortgage rates continue to give American families profound sticker shock," Bourne notes. "The Echelon poll also found that 74 percent of likely voters won't believe inflation is solved unless prices fall. Since they haven't, and won't, the president gets blamed. In an election year, that's a big political problem."