'This is unprecedented': How disdain for Trump is fueling a major political 'transformation' in Canada

14 April

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in Richmond, British Columbia, Canada, on April 7, 2025 (Harrison Ha/ Shutterstock.com)

In Canada, members of the Liberal Party — now led by Prime Minister Mark Carney — and the Conservative Party (including opposition leader Pierre Poilievre) disagree on many things. But one thing many Conservatives and Liberals in Ottawa have in common is a vehement disdain for U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs and his call for Canada to merge with the United States and become "the 51st state."

But according to Canadian pollster Mark Graves, it is the Liberal Party that benefits the most from anti-Trump attitudes.

Politico's Catherine Kim reports that in January, Graves was seeing "a sudden and unexpected downward trend for Conservatives." And now, he is seeing Liberals with a clear advantage.

"We had the Conservative Party with a 25-point lead, which is a massive lead in our system," Graves told Politico in a Q&A interview published on April 14. "At that point, we had the Liberals, who were the incumbent, at a historic — at least in the 21st Century — low of 19 points, basically tied with the (more left-leaning New Democratic Party) at that point…. The Liberals, in my latest numbers, they would get a massive 200-seat majority."

Graves continued, "Now, I think there'll probably be a little fall back, but they'll have a big cushion. This is unprecedented. I have never seen a transformation of our voter landscape in Canada of that nature."

According to Graves, the "biggest factor by far" in the political shift he is seeing in Canada "is President Trump and the shock and awe at announcements that we heard."

The Canadian pollster told Politico, "I asked people: Do you think that the Trump Administration has been about what you expected, much worse or much better? And look, the yardstick wasn't very high. Canadians weren't expecting it was going to be great, but by an overwhelming majority, they said, 'Oh no, this is way worse than we thought.' And so, it produced this recoil effect in Canada. And national identity, which had been at a 35-year low, started going up as Canadians kind of got, 'Oh, they're going to annex us?'"

Graves added, "It produced this really dramatic rise in national attachment, which is the main factor that propelled the Liberals to their elevated position.

Read Politico's full interview with Mark Graves at this link.

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