Which of Trump’s Cabinet picks is least likely to be confirmed?

04 December 2024

President Donald Trump and former U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard embrace, joined by Tucker Carlson on stage at a campaign event sponsored by conservative group Turning Point USA, in Duluth, Georgia, U.S., October 23, 2024. REUTERS/Carlos Barria

The cast of characters Trump has chosen to populate his second term are a Star Wars cantina of fanatics, extremists, conspiracy theorists, sexual harassers, and disreputable no-goods. They have little or no experience running government, let alone expertise in the issues confronting the agencies and departments Trump wants them to lead.

But starting January 3, Senate Republicans will be the only firewall America has against this crowd. Assuming all Democrats vote against Trump’s nominees, Trump can stand to lose only a handful of Republican votes.

That firewall may still have some fire retardant in it. When Republican leaders apparently let it be known that Matt Gaetz for attorney general was a bridge too far, Gaetz withdrew his name from consideration.

Will Republican senators stand behind the other Trump nominees requiring Senate confirmation? Those who appear to be in the most trouble are:

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s pick for heading the Department of Health and Human Resources. Kennedy Jr. is a well-known anti-vaxxer who has claimed that COVID-19 was “targeted to attack Caucasians and Black people” and that “the people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese.” Kennedy Jr. keeps repeating the long-debunked claim that vaccines cause autism in kids, along with his insistence that the COVID vaccine has killed more people than it’s saved.

Pete Hegseth, Trump’s pick for secretary of defense, has a reputation for sexual harassment and assault, including an allegation of assault in 2017. (His own mother accused him in writing of repeatedly abusing women but subsequently disavowed the statements). According to a new report, he was ousted from leadership roles in two military veterans organizations following allegations of financial mismanagement, aggressive drunkenness, and sexist behavior.

Kash Patel, Trump’s pick to direct the FBI, has called for firing the top ranks of the FBI, prosecuting leakers and journalists, and replacing the national security workforce with “people who won’t undermine the president’s agenda.” He has pledged to investigate Trump’s political opponents and “come after the people in the media who lied about American citizens who helped Joe Biden rig the presidential election.”

Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s pick for director of national intelligence, has publicly called for the U.S. to allow Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad to remain in power and traveled to Syria to meet with him. She even challenged U.S. intelligence that found Assad’s forces had used chemical weapons. She is close to Russian President Vladimir Putin and a favorite on Russian propaganda. In 2022, she used her platform to amplify a Russian talking point that the U.S. had somehow provoked Putin to invade Ukraine.

Many other of Trump’s picks are controversial, but none has caused the same degree of public uproar as these four. (Rather than subject Trump’s nominees to the Senate’s constitutional duty of providing “advice and consent,” Senate Republicans may opt to go into recess, as Trump wishes, which will allow Trump to make so-called “recess appointments.”)

So today’s Office Hours question: In your view — assuming the Senate plays its constitutional role in assessing Trump’s nominees — which of his picks is least likely to be confirmed?

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Robert Reich is a professor of public policy at Berkeley and former secretary of labor. His writings can be found at https://robertreich.substack.com/.

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