I was telling you the other day that the Iranians have the president’s number. They know that all they have to do to win this war is exhaust his will to fight with enough “economic pain.”
Donald Trump’s will to fight was already limited, as the point of the war was creating conditions in which an old, depleted and unpopular president looked big, tough and loved on American TV.
But I’m having second thoughts. Trump is going to want to TACO – I would guess very soon – but war against this regime isn’t like invading Venezuela. Trump might want to quit, but the Iranians are setting things up so he will have to ask for their permission.
The risk could be worse even than a forever war: The US “must consider the possibility that they will be engaged in a long-term war of attrition that will destroy the entire American economy and the world economy,” said Ali Fadavi, advisor to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' commander-in-chief, according to AFP.
What I’m thinking of is this morning’s attacks on three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow section of the Persian Gulf through which passes about 20 percent of the world’s oil supply. The Iranians had brought the shipping lane to a stand-still since the start of Trump’s war. That’s the chief reason oil prices soared Monday. (In my neighborhood in New Haven, the price at the cheap gas station spiked by about 80 cents in the last week.)
Because Iran has also been mining the waters, shipping firms have asked the US Navy for escorts. Trump hyped the possibility to ease markets, but the Timesreported today that the Navy has declined all requests. Last night, Trump said US forces destroyed 10 “mine-laying vessels,” but the AP described them as “inactive.”
Trump was warned. He was told that a war with Iran could trigger oil shocks, especially at home, where the affordability issue is the primary force eating the heart out of his presidency. But the risks were “downplayed,” the Timessaid, in favor of a plan to “decapitate” Iran. While the military told Trump the regime would fight to the death, “other advisers remained confident that killing Iran’s senior leadership would lead to more pragmatic leaders taking over who might bring an end to the war.”
Obviously, that didn’t happen. First, because Israel, not the US, killed Ali Khamenei. Second, because his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, the new supreme leader, is more determined to prolong combat to avenge the deaths of his dad, mom, wife and son. Yesterday, a US official tried to commence ceasefire talks. Khamenei said no.
Trump thought Iran was going to be another Venezuela. In addition to the Times reporting, that’s clear from his demands. He said he wanted “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER.” He said he wanted a say in who is chosen to be Iran’s next leader. He called on the dissidents to rise up and overthrow the government. He suggested the US would take a stake in Iran’s oil reserves.
All these things happened, to varying degrees, in Venezuela. No one appears to have told Trump that the new enemy is Iranian or that Iranians don’t roll over. But even if someone had, it probably would not have changed his thinking. Things are going badly at home. A made-for-TV war would change the subject. And anyway, what’s one s------- country compared to another?
Iran’s agency was minimized so much in Trump’s war-planning that it was just assumed oil prices would return to normal at the end of the war. “The purposeful disruption in the oil market by the Iranian regime is short term, and necessary for the long-term gain of wiping out these terrorists and the threat they pose to America and the world,” Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said.
But, as they say, the enemy gets a vote.
This morning, Iran took responsibility for attacking three oil tankers. A drone strike also hit a port in Oman. Now, the AP said “the Iran war has blocked the Strait of Hormuz.” In response, the International Energy Agency said member countries would release a historic 400 million barrels of reserve oil. But, according to the Times, oil prices shot up anyway. Meanwhile, when asked about reopening the strait, the president toldNewsweek: “It’s working out very well, and I think you are going to see that."
Trump is lying, because lies are pretty much all he and his top aides have left. Evidently, they thought this war was going to be easy-peasy. There was no plan for regime change, according to US Senator Chris Murphy, after a classified briefing. There was no plan for stopping Iran’s nuclear program. And there was no plan for the Strait of Hormuz. “They don't know how to get it safely back open,” Murphy said, “which is unforgiveable, because this part of the disaster was 100 percent foreseeable.”
The US energy secretary tried easing concerns Sunday by saying oil prices will drop once the US stops Iran’s ability to attack oil tankers. “We’re massively attriting their ability to strike with missiles and drones, and that rate of attrition will increase in the coming days,” Chris Wright told Fox. “Energy will flow soon.”
But even if that was achieved today, it would be “months before we started to see oil come down,” according to CNN. “One oil analyst said it could take one to three months after the conflict is over to start getting oil back to normal through the Strait of Hormuz.”
And that’s assuming the US has the capacity to reopen the strait and guarantee safe passage for oil tankers in the future. Some experts say that would likely take a massive ground invasion, a generation-defining investment of resources and manpower that American public opinion is united in saying is out of the question.
Iran is winning, suggested Newt Gingrich. Without a plan for the strait, Iran has Trump over a barrel. “If they can’t keep it open, this war will in fact be an American defeat before very long, because the entire world, including the American people, will react to the price of oil if the strait stays closed,” he said.
Trump finds himself in a place familiar to previous presidents mired in forever wars. He can’t leave without hurting himself. He can’t stay without hurting himself. He’s going to lie in the hope that lying frees him from responsibility. But as the saying goes, the enemy has a vote. Chickening out is no longer an option.
He can TACO when Iran says he can.