Expert reveals the 'big political irony' behind the pending Trump hush money verdict

29 May 2024

In a Lower Manhattan courthouse, a jury will be deciding a criminal case unlike any other in United States history: the hush money/falsified business records trial of Donald Trump. Never before has a jury been asked to evaluate criminal charges against a former U.S. president who is also his party's presumptive presidential nominee and, according to some polls, has small single-digit leads over his opponent — incumbent President Joe Biden — in key swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada.

With Trump's defense team and Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg Jr.'s prosecutors having made their final arguments, jury deliberations are set to begin on Wednesday, May 29 following instructions from Justice Juan Merchan. It remains to seen whether the 12 jurors will vote "guilty" or "not guilty" on the charges — or if there will be a hung jury should they be unable to reach an agreement.

In an article published on May 29, The Hill's Brett Samuels emphasizes that the political world is gearing up for a bombshell with the verdict — whatever it turns out to be.

"The verdict will be historic," Samuels explains. "Either Trump will be campaigning for the White House as a convicted felon, giving Democrats fresh fodder and possibly turning off independent voters, or he will be acquitted as the first U.S. president to stand trial, giving him a rallying cry for the rest of the campaign."

Samuels adds, "The political significance of the trial was on display Tuesday, (May 28) as the Biden and Trump campaigns held dueling events outside the courthouse. The Biden campaign deployed actor Robert De Niro and retired law enforcement officers who were at the Capitol on January 6, 2021, for a press conference to bash Trump as dangerous and a threat to democracy."

Trump is facing four criminal indictments altogether, although three of his trials appear unlikely to take place before the November election.

Samuels notes that if Trump is found "not guilty" in Bragg's case, his GOP allies are likely to "hail the outcome as vindication, while also using it to cast doubt on the validity of the other charges against Trump."

Grant Reeher, director of the Campbell Public Affairs Institute at Syracuse University in Upstate New York, told The Hill, "There's a big political irony here, in that the trial and the verdict are obviously historic. But at the same time — due to the nation's deep political polarization, and the heavy public exposure Trump has had for the past eight years — opinions of him are pretty much baked in."

Reeher pointed out that some undecided voters may be swayed by the verdict, but he doesn't expect it to be a huge number.

Reeher told The Hill, "In either case, the effect is probably marginal. However, even marginal effects in a very close election could matter."

Read The Hill's full report at this link.

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