U.S. President Donald Trump gestures as he delivers remarks during a visit to a Mack Trucks' assembly plant, in Macungie, Pennsylvania, U.S., June 23, 2026. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein
A pair of new polls revealed the true extent of the damage President Donald Trump has done to his party’s midterm chances, and according to one leading political reporter, it amounts to the “end days for GOP.”
This was the assessment of Punchbowl News founder Jake Sherman, who shared the two polls Thursday morning. One was from Fox News, which explained, "If the election were today, 53 percent of voters would back the Democratic candidate in their House district and 46 percent the Republican. That 7-point edge is just outside the poll’s margin of error. Democrats were up by 5 points in April. Notably, 53 percent is the highest percentage either party has received on the generic House ballot in Fox News polling since 1996."
As Sherman notes, that’s a “big gulf in the generic,” implying major angst toward the Republicans. But the Fox poll didn’t stop with the revelations there. As Fox elaborated, “President Donald Trump’s job approval remains near a record low, more Democrats are motivated to vote, Republicans join Democrats and independents in rating the economy negatively, and 4 in 10 voters want ‘dramatic" or "revolutionary’ change. Plus, more view the GOP as tied to elites than the Democratic Party.”
The news continues to get worse for Republicans from there. According to Fox, “Voters say Democrats can better handle income inequality (+22 points), healthcare (+21), inflation (+10), the economy (+9), and foreign policy (+7). Republicans hold the advantage on crime (+7 points), while government spending (Democrats +3) and national security (R +2) are more evenly divided. On immigration, the GOP had an 8-point edge in April. Now, Democrats are preferred by one point.” The number of those who say they face “severe” financial hardship due to inflation has shot up by 8 percent since last year, and 54 percent say they expect the economy to get worse in the coming year. What’s more, “when looking only at counties where the 2024 presidential vote was close — Trump and former Vice President Kamala Harris within 10 points — the Democratic candidate leads by 59-41 percent.”
And all that bad news is coming from a source that tends to skew in Trump and the GOP’s favor. Set alongside another new poll from Emerson, which shows a whopping 11-point lead for Democrats on a generic ballot, and it becomes clear why Sherman is saying “that’s end days for GOP.”
All of this is very bad news for Republicans heading into the midterms, where even Fox admits their chances of losing the House majority are high. It also bodes poorly for the Republican presidential candidate in 2028, as voters are making it increasingly clear that they want major change.
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