According to political commentator and Contrarian editor-in-chief Jennifer Rubin, while President Donald Trump has been working hard to make himself appear like a winner by hosting events like his UFC birthday bash, he is in fact “getting blown off the court of public opinion” as “his fan base has drifted away.”
As evidence of the president’s tanking support, she points to a recent survey by the New York Times, which shows “that a majority of white, non-college educated voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy. The nosedive since the 2018 midterms — when he held a +30-point advantage with working-class white voters — to his current deficit, ranging from 14 to 30 points, confirms that he has lost his most loyal followers.”
While she notes that this is one of many telling numbers, “his collapse among independent voters is truly stunning. AP-NORC research shows that ‘while about half of independents without a college education had a positive view of Trump around the 2024 election,’ only about a quarter did by this spring, PBS reported. The education gap disappeared, so independents now have ‘similarly negative views of the president regardless of their level of education.’ Likewise, PRRI’s poll of over 5,400 Americans confirms that Trump’s support has plunged among independents (down from 37 percent to 25 percent since last September) and even further (35 percent to 14 percent) among ‘true independents’ (who don’t lean toward either party).”
But according to Rubin, arguably “Trump’s biggest fumble may have been with Hispanic voters, thanks to his disastrous economy and cruel anti-immigrant onslaught. PRRI shows Hispanic support down from 39 percent in September 2024 to 23 percent, the lowest in five years. AP-NORC found Hispanic independent support cratering from 46 percent around the 2024 election to ‘as low as 15 percent during last fall’s government shutdown before landing around one-quarter in the spring.’ In the same vein, the UnidosUS Bipartisan Poll of Hispanic Voters found 67 percent of Hispanic voters nationally disapprove of Trump’s performance, and 66 percent think he and Republicans are not doing enough on the economy.”
All told, says Rubin, it’s clear that “Trump’s lame stunts” have failed to “distract Americans from his decrepit appearance and dismal job performance are not helping him.” What’s more, she asserts that when “you look at the reasons for voters’ economic angst, there’s an argument to be made that Trump’s vile displays of self-indulgence will make Republicans’ predicament worse. Behind the polling numbers is an inescapable economic reality. At the very time Americans are most stressed about making ends meet, they are confronted on a daily basis with evidence of Trump’s egregious self-enrichment and an ever-widening chasm between his uber-rich pals and everyone else.”
With all this in mind, Rubin’s conclusion is not optimistic for the Republicans’ midterm chances this November: “Only people as clueless and selfish as Trump, MAGA operatives, and the Epstein class could imagine that they can keep the masses at bay and themselves in power with the 21st-century equivalent of Circus Maximus. It is easy to see why, then, Trump’s shenanigans may aggravate the threat to MAGA rule, not stave off its impending political reckoning.”