President Donald Trump returns to the White House, after Israel and the U.S. launched strikes on Iran, in Washington, D.C., March 1, 2026. REUTERS/Nathan Howard
President Donald Trump has weathered innumerable political storms during his time in office, but according to a new breakdown from the New York Times, the "evidence is decisive" that his extraordinary luck is finally running out — with the "most damaging" evidence of all hitting his most important strength.
Writing for the outlet on Tuesday morning, columnist Thomas Edsall cited the well-established statistical trends underpinning Trump's declining support and the growing certainty that the GOP will get wiped out in the midterms. Per a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, his disapproval among voters is more than twice his approval, 66 percent versus just 32 percent, with some other recent polls putting him just south of 30. His support among some of his most crucial demographics, Latinos and independent voters, is also cratering massively.
"Voters, in other words, are showing a growing determination to repudiate the Trump presidency," Edsall wrote. "Their most direct opportunity to express this determination is electing Democratic majorities in the House and the Senate. At the moment, poll data gives Democrats a strong chance of taking the House and modest but strengthening odds of taking the Senate."
He added later: "Smarter.Vote, a voter analysis website, currently assesses a 73 percent chance of a Democratic takeover of the House, with a post-election makeup of 228 Democrats to 207 Republicans.Smarter.Vote foresees a much closer and more contested Senate outcome, with Democrats now having a 57 percent chance of taking control, with a 51-to-49 majority."
While admitting that election forecasting can often be a "fool's game," Edsall contended that some observers are being "too cautious," arguing that in his "own experience... trends are highly predictive of outcomes — and the trend line now is moving decisively in favor of the Democrats."
The "most damaging" sign of Trump's waning power and luck, however, is the way in which his relevance is starting to crumble, threatening his all-important ability to command attention.
"Most damaging of all for a wannabe autocrat like Trump, who depends on being the center of attention to maintain his power, there are clear signs that the president is losing relevance," Edsall wrote. :On Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal reported on its A.I.-based analysis of nearly 70,000 hours of podcasts with a headline that should make even Trump cringe: 'MAGA Podcasters Are Tuning Out Trump.' 'Mentions of Trump’s name per hour on conservative podcasts have fallen nearly 70 percent from their peak in the run-up to the 2024 election,' The Journal noted, a drop-off that accelerated after late February, when Trump began his war with Iran."