Trump allies and experts admit he's wrong on major midterm promise

President Donald Trump gestures at the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C., U.S., January 6, 2026. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Knowing that Republican successes in the upcoming midterm elections depend in part on lowering gas prices, President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed they either are already down or will soon go down.

Both experts and Trump's fellow Republicans disagree with him.

“But that’s going to come tumbling down,” Trump said when describing gas prices on Wednesday, according to a report by The Hill's Julia Manchester on Sunday. “That’s going to be like rocket ships in reverse.”

Similarly, in August Trump said that “remember, we inherited the worst inflation in the history of our country. We took over -- what a mess it was, and we were bringing down prices and we brought down prices and nobody can believe what is going on.”

Yet according to the report by The Hill, Trump's statements about lower and/or soon-to-be-lowered gas prices are contradicted by others who are in the know.

"Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-N.D.) said earlier this week that he is 'open to exploring' an export ban for diesel fuel if it 'would take pressure off of prices,'" Manchester reported. "Interior Secretary Doug Burgum told reporters at the Group of 20 summit in Houston this week that a ban on U.S. fuel or oil exports would likely not lower prices. 'We would consider an export ban if we thought that actually might lower prices, but that’s not the case,' the secretary said. "

Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at Gulf Oil, spoke to The Hill in greater detail about what is likely to happen when it comes to diesel prices.

“I think prices remain above six [dollars], and seven is not out of the realm of possibility,” Kloza explained. “I think gasoline remains above four.”

Kloza added that potential conditions like a Gulf of Mexico hurricane could further increase diesel prices.

“Not much the president can do about this, too,” Kloza argued. “I’m surprised that he hasn’t yet used the threat of export curbs or [windfall profits tax] to spook some of the hot money out of gasoline and diesel, but they haven’t done that yet.”

Speaking to AlterNet in April, economist Dr. Robert J. Shapiro — a top adviser to former President Bill Clinton — explained how Trump's war against Iran virtually guarantees that gas prices will remain high for the foreseeable future.

“Even if hostilities do not restart, the price of oil will not return to pre-Trump levels because there’s a new risk premium that they could restart at any time, increasing tanker insurance costs for example, and because oil infrastructure has been degraded, reducing supply for some time,” Shapiro told AlterNet. “An Iran-controlled toll to use the Strait will produce big bucks for Iran, but its impact on world prices for oil, natural gas, helium, etc. should be minimal. Another source of economic friction will be the now-intense uncertainty about what the Trump administration will do next—in the Mideast and in scores of policies at home; and uncertainty dampens investment.”

He added, “As it is, the economy was weakening before this crisis began, and these and other factors will exacerbate those downward pressures. A resolution over the next two weeks will not stop the deterioration in economic conditions.”

Despite Trump's responsibility for rising gas prices, there are Trump voters who plan on backing Republicans anyway in the upcoming midterm elections.

"Dan Lloyd, who voted for Trump, lamented the president’s leadership as the 63-year-old carpenter paid $4.39 a gallon to fill up his pickup truck in Mesa, Arizona," Fortune's Steve Peoples, Jesse Bedayn and Jonathan J. Cooper, along with The Associated Press, wrote on Sunday. "'He hurt himself stepping into this,' Lloyd said of Trump. 'Where’s all this oil from Venezuela? I thought we were flush with gas and everything, but no. The American people eat it every time, whether it’s interest rates, food, gasoline.'"

He added, "Still, he expects to vote Republican in the midterms. 'I think the Democratic Party has lost its way,' Lloyd said. 'I just feel like the whole system’s on the verge of collapse.'"

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