A new red state showdown once again puts Trump’s influence to the test

U.S. President Donald Trump with First Lady Melania Trump on the White House South Lawn in Washington, DC on Jun 14, 2026. Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images

President Donald Trump's ability to shape the outcome of a Republican primary asserted itself in a long list of recent elections, with Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Kentucky), Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-Louisiana) and other incumbents losing to MAGA challengers Trump endorsed. But Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) lost Iowa's GOP gubernatorial primary despite Trump's endorsement. Now, according to the New York Times, is remains to be seen whether a Republican U.S. Senate primary in deep red Alabama will or won't go Trump's way.

Times reporter Tim Balk explains, "The Republican Senate primary runoff in Alabama crystallizes how two midterm election themes seem to be at odds: Many Republican voters deeply trust President Trump's judgment on endorsements, and many are hungry for outsiders. On Tuesday, voters in Alabama will choose between Rep. Barry Moore, who secured the president's endorsement in January and is running as an unflagging Trump loyalist, and Jared Hudson, a former Navy SEAL and political newcomer running an anti-establishment campaign."

Balk, in the Times, stresses that "little about the primary race has gone as expected."

"The early frontrunner, Steve Marshall, the state attorney general, slipped in the polls after Mr. Trump endorsed Mr. Moore," the New York Times reporter notes. "Then, Mr. Marshall missed the runoff altogether, finishing about 15 percentage points behind Mr. Moore and about one point behind Mr. Hudson in the May 19 primary. Now, some polls show Mr. Hudson leading in the runoff, though survey data is limited.

Bill Armistead, former chairman of the Alabama Republican Party, told the Times that Hudson has "really caught on with the people of Alabama" by running as an outsider.

Armistead observed, "We may have switched the frontrunners three times. On the one hand, the weight of the president's endorsement has put Barry Moore where he is."

Moore and Hudson are competing for the U.S. Senate seat presently help by Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Alabama), who decided against seeking reelection in the 2026 midterms in order to run for governor.

Balk points out that Moore has "put" Trump's "endorsement at the heart of his campaign."

Moore told the Times, "When I call the president, he takes our calls — and those sort of things matter."

Whether the GOP nominee is Moore or Hudson, the person will go into the general election with a major advantage — as Alabama is a deep red state that Trump won by 30 percent in 2024.

The 2026 midterm elections have exposed fractures within the Republican Party between Trump loyalists and establishment figures seeking to maintain traditional conservative principles. While Trump's endorsement remains a potent force in GOP primaries, recent races demonstrate that anti-establishment fervor and outsider candidates can sometimes overcome even the former president's backing.

The Alabama runoff exemplifies this tension, with voters torn between rewarding party loyalty to Trump and embracing candidates who position themselves as insurgents against the political establishment. This dynamic will likely shape Republican primary contests nationwide as candidates calibrate how prominently to feature Trump's endorsement versus their outsider credentials in appealing to a restless base.

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