Swing state voters are furious at Republicans over a surprising reason

People attend a town hall meeting for constituents held by Democratic U.S. Senator Andy Kim at Teamsters Local 331 Hall in Egg Harbor City, New Jersey, U.S. March 20, 2025.

Four years have passed since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade with its June 2022 ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization — a ruling that, according to conservative GOP consultant Sarah Longwell, continues to be a political liability for Republicans.

Writing in the conservative website The Bulwark, Longwell — founder of Republican Accountability (RA), formerly Republican Voters Against Trump — explains, "Amid all the talk of inflation, war, and artificial intelligence, people are underestimating just how important abortion could still be to this fall's elections. That seems like an insane sentence to type because, after all, abortion proved decisive in 2022, when Democrats dramatically overperformed expectations. The consensus quickly formed that the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade was the key contributor. But when the Democratic Party put a heavy emphasis on abortion in the 2024 elections, it didn't pan out. That's because voters were more motivated by economic issues."

Longwell adds, "Fights around abortion moved to the states — where Republican- controlled legislatures were passing sweeping bans — and receded from the federal level. Today, Dems may have over-learned the lesson of 2024."

Although Longwell is on the right politically, she is very much in the Never Trump school of conservatism and rooted for Joe Biden in 2020 and Kamala Harris in 2024. And she emphasizes, in her Bulwark piece, that not all conservatives want abortion to be illegal.

"I can't tell you how many times I've heard voters — even swing voters and conservatives — say some version of 'I'm pro-life, but I believe in a woman's right to choose,'" Longwell notes. "Translation: Voters can be personally uncomfortable with abortion and still believe that the state-level bans are a bridge too far. In recent focus groups I've conducted, abortion still pops up as an issue. That's especially true in states with very restrictive abortion bans — including some that have key Senate and gubernatorial races this year, like Iowa and Texas."

In Texas, outgoing Sen. John Cornyn — who recently lost a U.S. Senate primary to far-right Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton — is anti-abortion, but not as extreme on the issue as the Donald Trump-backed nominee.

"Paxton is a weak candidate for a lot of reasons, including his association with Texas' extreme abortion laws," Longwell observes. "This is something Democrats can and should hang around his neck. Sure, Texas is still Texas. But Paxton's liability on abortion, among his other indiscretions, could prove a major drag. In Iowa, Gov. Kim Reynolds also received plenty of fire. She isn't running for a third term. But Republican Zach Lahn is on the ballot, and he supports a total abortion ban with potential implications for IVF, which is even more extreme than the current law…. Dems seem aware that abortion itself isn't enough to tip any one race. Instead, it’s folded into a candidate's broader profile — and that can make all the difference."

Longwell continues, "Governors like Brian Kemp in Georgia and Mike DeWine in Ohio managed to get reelected in 2022, even though in 2019, both had signed 'heartbeat' abortion bans similar to Texas'. But they benefit from a broader 'normie' appeal. By contrast, patently insane candidates who supported near-total bans — like Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania, Tudor Dixon in Michigan, or Kari Lake in Arizona — all lost their races. Extreme positions on abortion are often, though not always, a leading indicator of extreme positions on other issues, like whether or not the 2020 election was stolen."

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