Trump still doomed politically despite another 'brush with death': analysis

President Donald Trump takes questions from the media at a press briefing at the White House in Washington, D.C., April 25, 2026. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

President Donald Trump's first "brush with death" was widely credited with reversing his political fortunes and paving the way for his reelection. The latest abortive attempt on his life, however, will not be nearly enough to reverse the political tailspin he currently finds himself in, per a new analysis from The i Paper.

Over the weekend, the annual White House Correspondents' Dinner was cancelled after a man opened fire in the lobby of the hotel where it was set to take place, forcing Trump and his officials to be evacuated. An alleged manifesto from the suspect later revealed that he was most likely there to target the president and certain members of his administration.

Writing for The i Paper on Monday, political correspondent Simon Marks wrote that this third attempt on Trump's life in a two-year span "probably won't" do for his tanking approval numbers what the first one did in 2024. At a July campaign event that year in Butler, Pennsylvania, a gunman opened fire at then-candidate Trump from long range, killing an audience member but only grazing his intended target's ear. The image of Trump defiantly raising a fist after the incident was widely credited with portraying him as tough and resilient as he sought reelection, bringing voters back into the fold at a time when his chances at a second term in the White House were shaky.

"Unlike Trump’s brush with death in Butler, Pennsylvania, in July 2024, the gunman on Saturday never got close to the ballroom where Trump was about to entertain more than 2,000 guests," Marks explained. "This time, there were no bloodstained fist-pumps as the Secret Service rushed onto the dais and scurried the President away. No shots were fired inside the ballroom itself, with the incident contained in the Washington Hilton’s ground floor above."

He continued: "Could the latest attack lead to a similar uptick in support, or at least enough to blunt the momentum that some believe will lead to the Democrats retaking the House and potentially the Senate? Polls showing any change in political support will only be available in the coming weeks, but this time around it is far from evident that Trump will enjoy a bump in support that could help him navigate his way out of the dire political straits he finds himself in."

Marks explained various reasons why this latest incident is far less likely to pay out political dividends for Trump, noting firstly that the panic of the moment seemed to dissipate quickly and did not lead to any sort of marketable image of strength. In fact, some clips appeared to show him stumbling over as he was rushed away by the Secret Service.

Additionally, Marks argued that the incident taking place at the WHCD could blunt its impact for MAGA followers, for whom the event is "heavily linked with the 'Washington swamp' that Trump came to power vowing to destroy."

"Instead, swamp life is thriving, with the dinner putting the cozy relationships between the powerful and those who cover them on display," Marks argued.

He added: "Working-class voters, struggling to pay $4 a gallon at the petrol pump, are unlikely to feel too much sympathy for a President who was seemingly never in real danger, was busy tucking into a salad course with people he professes to despise, and continues to wage a war on Iran that is forcing prices higher with no end in sight. A noticeable Trump bump is therefore unlikely."

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