These 4 signs show Trump’s 'diminishing control' as problems deepen: analysis

15 February 2024

Unless there is a shocking and totally unexpected upset with former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley — the only Republican other than Donald Trump left in the 2024 GOP presidential primary — U.S. voters can expect a rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden in November.

Trump, despite facing four criminal indictments and a variety of civil lawsuits, appears to be moving closer and closer to winning his party's nomination. And many polls are showing a close race if Biden and Trump compete in the general election.

But in a biting opinion column/listicle published on February 15, the Washington Post's Jennifer Rubin lays out four reasons why "signs point to" Trump's "diminishing ability to control much beyond" his domination of the GOP primary. These "signs," according to Rubin, "paint a portrait of the near-certain nominee and his party under stress."

The four "signs" that Rubins lists are: (1) "the New York 3rd," (2) "self-inflicted wounds on Ukraine and the border," (3) "Republicans flee the House," and (4) "Trump's trial grow near."

By "the New York 3rd," Rubin is referring to Tuesday, February 13's special election in New York State's 3rd Congressional District" — which found centrist Democrat Tom Suozzi winning the U.S. House seat formerly held by disgraced Republican George Santos.

"When a GOP-held district goes from plus-7.6 points — Santos' margin of victory in 2022 — to minus-7.8 points," Rubin observes, "it might be time for Republicans to take their weakness at the ballot box seriously."

Suozzi's victory makes the GOP's small U.S. House majority even smaller, and Rubin describes Republican departures from Congress as a bad sign for their party.

"A cavalcade of no fewer than 21 House Republican departures shows that some party members are not eager to run with Trump and serve should he get elected," Rubin argues. "Democrats' increasing confidence about taking back the House from the utterly dysfunctional MAGA-controlled GOP should remind us that, with the exception of 2016, Trump has been ballot-box poison, dragging down-ticket Republicans to defeat in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023."

Rubin predicts that Trump's legal problems will only get worse in the weeks and months ahead.

"Trump is not the colossus that many in the media suggest," the Post columnist emphasizes. "His iron grip on core followers does not diminish the significance of a rebellion in the ranks regarding Ukraine, his devastating blunders on that issue and the border, a parade of fed-up Republicans exiting the House and, crucially, the progress of serious felony trials. If Biden gets to face that guy, it will be the equivalent of drawing an inside straight."

Jennifer Rubin's full Washington Post column is available at this link (subscription required).

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