'Trump isn't going to win': Analyst makes case that major 'MAGA defeat' is a certainty

Buried deep in an analysis of all of the reasons why Donald Trump will go down to defeat against President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election, a columnist suggested that history is not on his side and that the MAGA movement is winding down.

Writing for the Atlantic, Hussein Ibish of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington explained that there are multiple roadblocks that will deny Trump a second presidency, including his extensive list of criminal trials that are casting a cloud over his campaign, his disparaging comments about the military that are resurfacing, and the fact that he is not the man he was in 2016 when he won his surprising victory over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

More to the point, he added, has been the string of losses at the polls suffered by MAGA candidates he has endorsed and a general dissatisfaction with the Republican Party overall.

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"Trump has a strong record of electoral losses with his 2016 upset, which apparently surprised even him, as the lone exception," Ibish wrote. "His party suffered the standard midterm defeat in 2018. Then he lost the 2020 election. Then Republicans lost control of the Senate after Georgia’s runoff in early 2021. Then his party was denied the standard midterm victory in 2022, barely eking out a four-vote House majority thanks in large part to his own handpicked, election-denying candidates, almost all of whom lost in competitive races."

That led him to conclude, "There is no obvious reason that 2024 should constitute a sudden break from this pattern of MAGA defeat."

The analyst noted that President Joe Biden has a strong record to run on while Trump is carrying the baggage of lawsuits, criminal prosecutions, his part in putting three justices on the Supreme Court who were pivotal in overturning Roe v. Wade and his part in the attempted insurrection on Jan. 6.

"Trump’s record as president and since — January 6, the devastating testimony from his former senior officials, the ongoing trials, and whatever additional self-inflicted wounds he delivers — will contrast very poorly with Biden’s track record and steady leadership," he wrote.

"By November, enough Americans will surely understand that they aren’t voting for Biden over Trump so much as voting for the Constitution over a would-be authoritarian.

"The case against Trump’s reelection is obvious and damning. As long as his opponents prosecute that case — and they will — Trump isn’t going to win."

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