2028 GOP primary will be all Trump — all the time — even without Trump on ballot

Many Never Trump conservatives would love to see the Republican Party return to a traditional non-MAGA form of Reagan/Goldwater conservatism, but they realize that in 2026, President Donald Trump remains the GOP's most prominent and influential figure. Moreover, they see that the far-right MAGA movement isn't going away. And quite a few Never Trumpers are gone from the GOP indefinitely. Conservative attorney George Conway is running for Congress as a Democrat, and Never Trumpers ranging from MS NOW's Joe Scarborough to ex-GOP strategist Rick Wilson to veteran Washington Post columnist George Will are now independents.

In an article published on April 17, Slate's Ben Jacobs focuses on the 2028 presidential election and the GOP's post-Trump options — many of which are decidedly MAGA, including Vice President JD Vance and Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Missouri).

"Donald Trump is one of the most consequential figures in American history," Jacobs explains. "What happens after he is gone? 2028 will be the first presidential election since 2012 in which Donald Trump is not the Republican nominee for president. Despite some trolling on this topic from the MAGA right, the Constitution is pretty clear on this…. Trump will leave behind an American political system molded by him."

Jacobs adds, "Both political parties are bound together by him — the Republican coalition by loyalty to Trump, the Democratic one by revulsion of him. However, those coalitions will be tested in a presidential election without the incumbent on the ballot — a moment that is growing closer every day."

The Slate reporter stresses that the GOP is "certainly not going back to pre-Trump politics."

"After all, the Never Trumpers have long since left the GOP, and many of the MAGA-curious have deserted the Democrats," Jacobs observes. "He even had this stature in the 2024 Republican primary, when he was a candidate, as even those running against him still bent over backward to avoid direct criticism of their leading opponent. Instead, invariably, they merely noted that they offered some version of Trump without the drama…. Certainly, the movement will continue to dominate the Republican Party."

Jacobs predicts that the 2028 GOP presidential field "will likely resemble a political Baskin-Robbins, with 31 different flavors of Trumpism available."

"This starts with Vance, who, as vice president, would be Trump's logical successor and is already considered to be the favorite for the 2028 nomination," Jacobs explains. "But there will be flavors for all comers, helped along by the fact that Trumpism as a political philosophy is often a choose-your-own-adventure on most topics, save tariffs and perhaps the NFL's new dynamic kickoff rule. If you like that Trump has been bombing Iran, you might opt for (Sen.) Tom Cotton should he run. In contrast, if you prefer the version of Trump who is isolationist, you might lean toward Steve Bannon."

Jacobs continues, "On social issues, if you are enthused by Trump's appointment of the Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade, (Sen.) Josh Hawley might be more your speed. But if you admire Trump's efforts to de-emphasize social issues, (former Virginia Gov.) Glenn Youngkin could be your top choice. And, of course, the race to succeed Trump will happen in an environment in which…. his endorsement will almost single-handedly determine the winners and losers."