Trump’s trade wars threaten to inflict 'lasting scars' — not unlike the Great Recession: economist

President Donald Trump and other MAGA Republicans are claiming that if his aggressive new tariffs cause any financial discomfort, it will only be short-term — and will be followed by a robust economic boom.

But Roosevelt Institute economist Ali Bustamante, in an op-ed published by MSNBC on March 18, argues that MAGA's pro-tariff claims fail to acknowledge the long-lasting damage that severe economic downturns can inflict.

"His argument? That a recession now will lead to some vague 'golden age' later," Bustamante explains. "But that’s not how economies work. Recessions aren't detox cleanses; they don't flush out inefficiencies and leave you leaner and stronger. They are periods of mass job losses, closed businesses and financial ruin that leave lasting scars on families, workers and entire communities. We know this because we've lived it — and not even that long ago."

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Bustamante continues, "The 2008 financial crisis and Great Recession didn't make the U.S. economy more efficient — it wiped out a generation of wealth, particularly for Black and Latino families, and left millions behind. The recession caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic deepened inequality and exacerbated housing insecurity, despite the fastest policy response in modern history."

The Roosevelt Institute economist warns that "recessions don’t set the stage for prosperity," but rather, "cause long-term damage that even a decade of growth can't fully undo."

"In reality, recessions kill small businesses while the biggest corporations consolidate power," Bustamente notes. "They drive up unemployment, forcing workers to take worse jobs for lower pay, and they weaken the very public institutions — like schools, health care and infrastructure — that enable long-term economic growth. Even worse, the current slate of proposed policies would actively make the economy more fragile."

According to Bustamente, the Trump Administration's policies are a recipe for economic decline.

"Imposing broad tariffs would raise prices for consumers and manufacturers alike, increasing inflation while slowing down economic activity," Bustamante writes. "Mass layoffs of government workers wouldn't lead to leaner government — it would gut essential public services, hurting businesses that rely on those workers' paychecks. And cutting Medicaid and Social Security wouldn't create a more 'dynamic' workforce; it would push millions into poverty, reduce consumer spending and force older Americans to stay in the workforce longer, crowding out younger workers from job opportunities…. The Trump Administration's vision is clear: force a recession, break the public sector and weaken social protections, all hoping that something better will emerge on the other side. But history has shown us what actually happens — higher inequality, lower wages and an economy rigged even further in favor of the ultrawealthy. Economic downturns don’t just disappear once the pain subsides; they leave behind long-term damage."

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Ali Bustamante's full MSNBC op-ed is available at this link.