Congress’ winners and losers battle for relevance ahead of crucial 2026 midterms

U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune listens to a question from a reporter following Senate votes on competing healthcare plans, at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., U.S., December 11, 2025. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

When President Donald Trump's MAGA cheerleaders appear on Fox News and Fox Business, they typically put on their best game faces and predict that Republicans will hold the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms. But during a Monday, December 29 appearance on MS NOW, conservative Republican Sarah Matthews (who served as deputy White House press secretary in the first Trump Administration and is now a vocal critic of the president) expressed confidence that Trump's "out of touch" messaging on the economy will help Democrats retake the House next year.

Matthews isn't the only one saying that GOP lawmakers could run into problems in 2026.

In a Bloomberg Government column published on December 29, Bloomberg News' Jonathan Tamari looks back on 2025 and cites some "winners and losers" in Congress.

The "winners," according to Tamari, include Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota), House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) and outgoing MAGA Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Georgia).

"John Thune(R-S.D.):The new Senate majority leader kept his conference largely united, confirmed Trump's nominees with little fuss — a tough task considering the baggage some carried — and did it while keeping his vow to preserve Senate traditions like the filibuster," Tamari explains. "He also built an improved relationship with the volatile president, avoiding blow ups after crossing him in the past. Look ahead:If Republicans lose the House next year but keep the Senate, Thune will become even more critical to the GOP as a bulwark in Congress."

Jeffries, Tamari adds, "set Democrats' shutdown strategy in motion and drove attention to health care, a Democratic sweet spot" — while Greene "dared to say out loud" things that other GOP lawmakers were afraid to say.

"The biggest test is whether Jeffries can win the House majority in 2026 and become speaker," Tamari observes. "He ends 2025 closer to that goal than he began it…. (Greene) helped force the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files, got a moment on 'The View,' and even got engaged."

Meanwhile, the "losers" in Congress, according to Tamari, include Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana).

"Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.): The Senate minority leader, along with Jeffries, used the recent shutdown to strong political effect," Tamari writes. "But Schumer still carries the stain of a March fiasco when he entered a government funding fight with no plan and folded, sacrificing a rare moment of Democratic leverage. Party activists haven't trusted him since. Look ahead: If he can pull off a near-miracle and win back the Senate, Schumer will earn big plaudits. But as Democrats seek generational change, his long congressional career is likely nearing its end…. Republicans chafed when Johnson kept the House out of session for more than a month during the fall government shutdown, and 2025 ended in chaos as rank-and-file lawmakers overrode him with discharge petitions."

Tamari continues, "It got so bad Johnson had to declare he had, in fact, not lost control. It's never a good sign when a leader has to clarify that. Look ahead: It doesn't look much brighter. The GOP majority isn't going to get much bigger."

Read Jonathan Tamari's full Bloomberg Government column at this link (subscription required).

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