'Bad sign for Republicans' in Texas as GOP sounds alarm over 'nail-biter' election

Although Democrats dominate Texas' major urban centers — from Houston to Austin to El Paso — and perform well in some of Texas' congressional districts, they continue to struggle in statewide races in the Lone Star State. Former Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) narrowly lost to incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) in 2008, but he still couldn't get past the finish line. And Donald Trump's 14 percent victory over Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris in 2024 reminded Democrats that Texas is still a red state.

Yet conservative columnist George Will believes that Texas' 2026 U.S. Senate race could be in play for Democrats if far-right State Attorney General Ken Paxton is the nominee instead of incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a more traditional conservative. And a Texas State Senate runoff election in the Ft. Worth suburbs, according to New York Times reporter J. David Goodman, is being closely monitored by Democratic and GOP strategists — and the outcome could offer a glimpse on what lies ahead in the 2026 midterms.

The race finds Democrat Taylor Rehmet competing with Republican Leigh Wambsganss.

Although Democrats dominate Dallas Proper, the suburbs of Dallas and Ft. Worth are much more GOP-friendly. And Goodman notes that although "the race is still a long shot for Democrats," political strategists will be paying close attention to the margins.

In an article published on January 29, Goodman reports, "A special election runoff on Saturday in the once reliably conservative suburbs of Fort Worth, Texas, has turned into a nail-biter for Republicans, who worry that even a narrow GOP victory in the State Senate race could be a bad sign for their midterm prospects…. More people voted for either the Republican finalist, Leigh Wambsganss, or her GOP rival in the three-way November election than for Mr. Rehmet. But even a psychological boost could help Democrats, who believe they have their best chance in years to win a statewide race in Texas this November."

Conservative Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, during a radio appearance, said he is "very concerned about this election."

"The concern is based on the odd timing of the election, set for Saturday, and the strong performance of the Democratic candidate, Taylor Rehmet, during the initial round of voting in November," Goodman explains. "Mr. Rehmet, a 33-year-old first-time candidate and local union leader, nearly won a majority of votes — more than 47 percent — in a district that in 2024 favored Donald J. Trump by 17 percentage points…. Mr. Rehmet has…. promised to address rising property taxes and has made his support for public education, including vocational programs, central to his campaign."

Goodman adds, "Whoever wins the runoff will serve only for the rest of the year. Both candidates are already registered to run in the November election, girding up for a long fight."

Read J. David Goodman's full New York Times article at this link (subscription required)