'Emerging swing state': Analysis reveals stunning scenario Trump will use to push rigged election claim

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has been warning fellow Republicans that they shouldn't underestimate Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), his challenger in Texas' 2024 U.S. Senate race.

Polls released in late October are showing a surprisingly close race, with Allred trailing Cruz by only 1 percent in a The Hill/Emerson College poll.

Meanwhile, a New York Times/Siena College poll found Cruz with a 4 percent lead. And a GBAO Strategies poll showed Cruz and Allred tied.

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In an op-ed published on October 28, Jeff Mayhugh — founding editor of Politics and Parenting — points to this Senate race and the presidential race as proof of the inroads that Democrats have been making in Texas. An Emerson College poll released on October 23 found GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump ahead of Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris by 7 percent in the Lone Star State.

"Texas has been trending blue for a decade due to a shift in business and population," Mayhugh explains. "From 2009 to 2021, more companies, 117, moved to Texas than any other state, most of which came from deep blue California. As a result, Texas gained two additional congressional seats, moving from 36 to 38, after the 2020 census, while California lost two. The population shift has continued; from 2020 to 2021, Texas' population grew more than any other state."

Mayhugh continues, "While Texas has gone red in every presidential election since 1980, the margin of victory has declined since 2012, going from 15.8 percent to 9.1 percent in 2016 and to 5.8 percent in 2020."

Texas, Mayhugh stresses, is an "emerging swing state" — and it's only a matter of time until a Democrat wins a statewide race there. And when that happens, he predicts, Trump will falsely claim voter fraud.

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Mayhugh argues, "While Texas is trending blue — and the writing is on the wall that it will happen sooner than later — it's still a long shot for Harris to win Texas in 2024…. If Texas were to go blue, Trump would probably say the election was rigged. Hopefully, he has learned a lesson from last time and won't hold another rally where he urges people to go to the Capitol."

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Read Jeff Mayhugh's full op-ed for The Hill at this link.