The first time Biddeford resident Anthony Burgess could vote in 2014, he cast his ballot for Republican U.S. Sen. Susan Collins. A registered Democrat, he wanted to contribute to the Pine Tree State’s reputation as independent, he said, and he thought Collins embodied that. But he never voted for her again.
Several Mainers who regularly gather to protest the senior senator in the York County town similarly said that at some point during Collins’ decades-long career, they too voted for her. For most, their view of her shifted during Donald Trump’s first presidency and has solidified during his second.
But Collins won in 2020 without the support of people like Burgess. Last time Collins was up for reelection, her Democratic opponent Sara Gideon, then the Speaker of the Maine House, focused her campaign on whether Collins had “changed” since she was first elected to the Senate in 1996.
”She tried to make the election about Sen. Collins,” said state Sen. Rick Bennett, a moderate Republican representing Oxford, “and it didn’t work.”
The November 2026 midterm election, when Collins will be up for re-election, will be something of a referendum on Trump, Bennett said. However, he added that it also matters who Collins’ opponent is. A year and a half out from Election Day, some have already started to make themselves known.
Collins told Maine Morning Star she intends to run for reelection in 2026 and highlighted her record of delivering for Maine, primarily financially, as why she feels she remains the best person to represent the state.
That focus of hers has previously helped unify a winning coalition of supporters. However, with the increasing demands for loyalty to Trump, slim Republican majorities in Congress and Collins’ race seen as an opportunity for Democrats to gain seats in the Senate, legal scholars, her critics on both sides of the aisle and polling signal the tightrope she has been walking is thinning.
Collins will face at least two primary challengers: Carmen Calabrese of Kennebunkport and Daniel Smeriglio of Frenchville have filed to run as Republicans. Calabrese, who moved to Maine five years ago from Florida, is a driver for Walmart and former small business owner. Smeriglio runs the rightwing Voice of the People USA radio and activist group.
An independent has also entered the race: Phillip Rench of Waterboro, who sits on the board for the Maine Space Corporation and owns Ossipee Hill Farm and Observatory. He was a former senior engineer at Elon Musk’s SpaceX, though he said he has no association with Musk or the company now aside from stocks he was awarded as an employee.
Two Democrats are also vying for Maine’s U.S. Senate seat so far.
Jordan Wood of Bristol, originally from Lewiston, spent about a decade working in politics in Washington, D.C., including as chief of staff to former Democratic U.S. Rep. Katie Porter of California.
Natasha Alcala of Madawaska is currently a fashion designer who moved to Maine from California a little over four years ago. She has degrees in international relations and criminal justice and is a U.S. Navy veteran. Alcala previously filed to run against U.S. Sen. Angus King in 2024 but withdrew before the primary.
Last election cycle, Collins’ pitch to Mainers focused on her ability to secure federal funding for the state through her then-expected ascent to chair one of the chamber’s most powerful committees, a position she now holds and emphasized when asked why she believes she’s still best poised to represent Maine.
Susan Collins has reached a pinnacle of authority. How will she use it?
“By climbing that ladder in the last three years I have been able to secure more than a billion dollars for hundreds of projects in communities across our state,” Collins said, “That would not have happened without the seniority that I have.”
Collins highlighted earmarks she’s secured for investments throughout each of Maine’s 16 counties as well as legislation that will impact Mainers more broadly, specifically co-authoring the Social Security Fairness Act, which was signed into law under former President Joe Biden earlier this year and restored full benefits for millions of public sector workers.
Calabrese acknowledged that Collins’ role as top appropriator is a strength. “You can’t argue with that,” he said, “but I look at it as well, I thank you for bringing it, but you’re also spending my money. It’s my tax dollars.”
And Calabrese thinks those tax dollars would go farther if Collins sided with Trump more often.
“If you agree more with some of the stances that he has, maybe you’ll do better,” Calabrese said.
Rench said he doesn’t think Collins’ continued pitch that she is best equipped to deliver financially for the state is a valid point.
“What we need to do as a state is become less dependent on federal dollars,” he said.
Rench said he would do this by building a stronger economic foundation for Maine families, including by addressing what he sees as “brain drain” in the state by overhauling the school system to have both college and trade school tracks. As someone who left the state after college to pursue opportunities in the space industry and then returned, he said he understands why young people leave and wants to change it.
He is also proposing reinventing industries, such as creating a federal reserve of dimensional lumber, growing Maine’s food production and processing capabilities to serve the country and positioning Maine as a leader in the space industry.
Wood previously helped lead End Citizens United, a political action committee working to reverse the 2010 Supreme Court decision Citizens United v. Federal Election Campaign Act, which deregulated restrictions on independent political spending by corporations and unions.
Some of his top priorities will be anti-corruption reform and getting big money out of politics. He said he plans to lead by example with his own campaign by not taking any money from corporate PACs or lobbyists. He is also committed to not becoming a lobbyist after serving in office, refuses to engage in selling individual stocks and will prohibit his family members and those of his staff from lobbying his office for issues.
In light of Trump slashing federal funding, Alcala said she would propose Maine partner with other states that have large gross domestic products, such as California, to ensure federal funding inconsistency doesn’t prevent people from having their basic needs met, such as by accessing low-income food assistance or making higher education free.
“With our combined GDP, we can definitely make it so that we can help those that need the extra funding,” Alcala said.
Smeriglio did not respond to interview requests.
Constituents who have reached out to Collins — including Cape Elizabeth resident Jerry Kaufman, an independent who said he emails Collins nearly every day, and Cokie Giles, a registered nurse at Eastern Maine Medical Center in Bangor who regularly attends federal lobby days — argue they don’t feel heard.
A common critique these two Mainers and others have is that Collins hasn’t hosted a town hall in at least 25 years.
Collins deferred to her press secretary Blake Kernen when asked about constituent requests for town halls.
“She prefers smaller group meetings or Zooms, rather than holding town halls where very few people get to speak, and the level of civility is often not that high,” the spokesperson said. “These forums were also difficult for people who were more reserved or less comfortable speaking in public.”
Kernan also said Collins individually meets with thousands of Mainers every year in her office and during events across the state.
These frustrations about accessibility are not unique to the Republican senator. Mainers have started to hold town halls to air their concerns, whether their current members of Congress agree to attend or not. In Maine, Democratic U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree is an outlier, as she held in-person town halls in early April, her first since 2017.
In public events so far, some of Collins’ opponents have deliberately focused on personal appeals to voters to set themselves apart.
Wood has held two town halls since he launched his campaign over a month ago. He said he will hold a town hall in each of Maine’s 16 counties during the race and, if elected, once a quarter. Wood also plans, if elected, to make his calendar public every month so his constituents can see who he is spending time with, he said.
Rench opened up his observatory this spring to meet constituents and intends to travel around the state with his mobile telescope to continue one-on-one discussions.
Alcala said she plans to start a YouTube channel to offer a more candid perspective into herself and her views for voters.
Calabrese is starting with speaking at county Republican meetings and trying to engage with people at events such as upcoming county fairs.
Some of those challenging Collins are actively trying not to make the mistakes they think Gideon made last election cycle.
Rench made a list of criticisms he heard about Gideon, down to her wearing clothing from Patagonia, an L.L. Bean rival. But the one that is guiding him most is focusing on what he could bring to the Senate, not what he thinks Collins lacks.
“I don’t think people want to hear critiques of Collins,” Rench said. “They know who she is.”
In Rench’s view, neither of the major parties adequately represent the working class, which is why he chose to run as an independent. In particular, he said, “I still think the Democratic Party is stuck in grief.”
Nationally, Senate Democrats have previewed their campaign messaging, already targeting Collins in particular.
The campaign arm of Senate Democrats began running digital ads in April against Collins and Republican U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina that highlight the Trump administration’s plans to cut phone services for Social Security, though the agency has not followed through on that plan. In response to this, Collins highlighted her work passing the Social Security Fairness Act.
Wood, who is running as a Democrat, is bringing lessons learned from the presidential election, particularly his party’s estrangement with working-class and young voters, into how he’s shaping his campaign.
“It’s our responsibility as candidates and as a political party to prove to that voter that we are the party that they should see as the side fighting for them,” Wood said. “I will spend as much time as I can in these communities, telling them about my vision for the future and the policies that I’ll champion to make their lives better.”
The average age of Congress has been a concern raised in elections past.
Collins is 72 years old and will be running for her sixth term as senator. Wood, Wrench and Alcala emphasized that they want to offer a younger perspective to Congress than Collins.
Calabrese is more so focused on the length of time Collins has held office. He said he’d only serve up to two terms if elected.
“I think it’s time for some people — I mean we’re not Middle America but Middle America-thinking people — who understand what’s going on boots on the ground to get involved,” he said.
Both parties have grown more ideologically cohesive creating a political environment that’s less hospitable for lawmakers who straddle the center — now a rarity in Congress.
Collins became a more reliable vote for her party during Trump’s last presidency compared to her track record before. In 2017, 87% of her votes were party-line. This was a shift, as Congressional Quarterly found between 1997 and 2016 that she voted with her party on party-line votes only 59% of the time.
But last year, she bucked her party the most out of all senators. An analysis from Roll Call found Collins sided with Republicans 47.8% of the time in 2024, although largely because of her votes in favor of President Joe Biden’s nominees. Her level of bipartisanship fluctuates depending on the measure, but she remains a rarity in the Trump era, neither endorsing the president nor fully turning her back on him.
“I don’t want to say she’s on the outside of her own party, but to a certain extent she is,” said Mark Brewer, chair of the political science department at the University of Maine.
Fewer people are running, and succeeding, with bipartisan campaigns. However, the success of Collins, the only senator from her party representing a state Trump lost in 2024, and Democratic U.S. Rep. Jared Golden in the second district — which also went for Trump — exemplifies that Maine is still holding onto that tradition, Brewer said. Bennett’s career as a prominent bipartisan voice is another example, Brewer added.
Those running against Collins have taken more pointed stances, both for and against Trump.
Wood said he spent the January 6 attack barricaded in Porter’s office, after which he co-founded democracyFIRST, a pro-democracy organization dedicated to combating growing threats to the free and fair elections.
“I think [Collins] had ample opportunity to be courageous to stand up to Donald Trump and her own party and she has failed to do so,” Wood said.
Calling Trump a “wanna-be dictator, authoritarian that is trying to centralize all power and authority in himself,” he said if Democrats are able to secure a Senate majority in the 2026 election that will provide a better opportunity to oppose the president during the remaining two years of his term.
As Trump slashes federal spending, Collins’ promise to deliver for Maine is tested
Alcala is also pitching herself as a candidate who will stand up to Trump. “We’re in a coup d’etat by Trump and Elon Musk,” she said. “The fact that Trump is taking money away from Mainers, whether they’re Republican, liberal, what have you, the fact that he’s doing that means that we can’t rely on the current government that we have.”
On the other hand, Calabrese said if elected he would help codify many of Trump’s executive orders into law. He commended Trump’s approach to immigration policy. “All this illegal immigration that’s one thing that I totally agree with him on,” he said.
He also supports Trump’s push to make the U.S. a global leader in Artificial Intelligence and the cuts made by his Department of Government Efficacy.
Calabrese said, “the President is not a king,” noting that he’d try to tow the line between helping the president follow through with his plans while still respecting the balance of power.
However, Calabrese said, “If he needs to take his executive orders to the Supreme Court, well that’s the checks and balances.”
When it comes to the Supreme Court, Rench was also motivated to run because of Collins’ pivotal vote that helped seat Justice Brett Kavanaugh.
“I have a nine year old daughter and after Sen. Collins, in my opinion, enabled the reversal of Roe vs. Wade,” Rench said, “I no longer trust her with my daughter’s future.”
Collins voted for Kavanaugh after she said he gave her private assurances he wasn’t a threat to the landmark abortion ruling that he later voted to overturn.
Early surveys show the senator with much lower favorability than ever before.
A poll from Morning Consult found that since last quarter, Collins’ net approval declined by 12 percentage points — more than that of any other senator. According to the poll, 51% of Maine voters disapprove of Collins, down from 47% at the end of last year.
A big part of Collins’ problem is that when it comes to Trump her approach is just antagonizing everyone.
– Public Policy Polling
Another poll commissioned by a top Democratic super PAC shows Collins is being pinched on both sides.
“A big part of Collins’ problem is that when it comes to Trump her approach is just antagonizing everyone,” the pollster wrote in a memo.
The survey of 569 registered Maine voters showed 81% of voters who supported Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris think the senator votes with Trump too often and 73% of Trump voters think she doesn’t vote with Trump often enough. Only 10% think she’s striking the right balance.
But on Monday, Pan Atlantic Research released its latest independent Omnibus Poll capturing the opinions of 840 likely voters and found close to an even split between those who find Collins favorable or unfavorable, similar to its polling in September.
“A year and a half out from Election Day, it’s far too early to poll right now,” Kernan, Collins’ spokesperson, said.
Pollsters have gotten Collins wrong before. The day before the election in 2020, Maine Senate polls showed Collins’ Democratic opponent Gideon ahead by six points. Collins went on to win by almost 9%.
Some speculate she appealed to undecided voters in the end and that pollsters underestimated that Mainers would split tickets.
Wood noted that Collins voted against Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett right before the 2020 election.
“It was a reminder that she has a tendency to be independent sometimes and there was a hope that she could be a catalyst in some way for a post-Trump Republican Party, that was the Republican Party they grew up with,” Wood said of voters. “That did not come to fruition. I think that voters now have a much clearer understanding of the threat in front of us.”
But beyond this race, pollsters across the country failed in 2020, as well as in 2016, to accurately capture the zeitgeist, particularly for working class voters in rural areas.
When it comes to Collins’ continued independent, deliver-for-Maine pitch, Brewer said, “I think it’s going to be harder for her to do that, to run that kind of campaign. It doesn’t mean that she can’t pull it off.”
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Maine Morning Star is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Maine Morning Star maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Lauren McCauley for questions: info@mainemorningstar.com.