How a 'series of dramatic events' will rock 2024’s presidential race: analysis

24 June 2024

When the United States' 2024 presidential election is held on Tuesday, November 5, voters will decide to either give President Joe Biden a second term or return former President Donald Trump to the White House.

National polls continue to show a very close race, with Biden slightly ahead in some of them and Trump slightly ahead in others. However, Trump, according to many polls, appears to have a slight single-digit advantage in key swing states such as Pennsylvania and Nevada — raising fears among Democratic strategists and organizers that Biden could win the popular vote but lose the electoral vote and therefore, lose the election.

In an article published by the conservative website The Bulwark on June 24, journalist A.B. Stoddard emphasizes that "a series of dramatic events" will rock the presidential race and "unfold in the days and weeks ahead."

"From the first debate to the Supreme Court's decision on Trump's bid for immunity, from Trump's July 11 sentencing in the New York court that found him guilty of 34 felonies to his announcement of a running mate and then his nominating convention on July 15," Stoddard explains, "developments will come swiftly that could alter the strategies of both campaigns as well as the candidates' poll positions."

Stoddard notes that the U.S. Supreme Court is "not likely" to either "grant broad immunity from crimes to presidents" or "reject Trump's argument entirely."

"Let's hope the decision isn't released on Thursday, (July 27)," Stoddard writes. "At 9 p.m. on Thursday, our oldest-ever president will debate the former president in Atlanta — an explosive immunity decision by the High Court could disrupt the coverage of the debate."

It remains to be seen, Stoddard notes, when and how Trump will announce his choice for a running mate.

"Should he have a bad debate," Stoddard argues, "Trump can draw the veep card and announce his running mate immediately to change the coverage and conversation. Or will he save it for his sentencing on July 11? Or does he wait until the convention to try and boost ratings for the gathering?"

Stoddard continues, "No matter the outcome of Justice Juan Merchan's sentencing decision, Trump will raise a s**t-ton of money on July 11. Jail will make it rain while probation or community service will still make the cult howl."

A.B. Stoddard's full article for The Bulwark is available at this link.

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