Pollsters reject argument that 'shy Trump voters' will significantly sway election

30 September 2024

Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville has been cautioning members of his party that polls tend to underestimate support for Trump, and screenwriter Adrian Wenner — in an op-ed published by the Daily Beast on September 26 — emphasized that "shy Trump voters" still exist in 2024 and shouldn't be overlooked in election analysis.

Wenner argued that in contrast to all the Trump supporters who are stridently loud and vocal in their support, shy Trump voters "don't feel comfortable telling" others that they will be voting for him in November and "don't want to admit it to strangers."

But according to The Hill's Jared Gans, some pollsters reject the argument that "shy" Trump voters could significantly sway the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.

Chris Jackson, senior vice president of public affairs for Ipsos, told The Hill, "I've talked to Trump voters. They don't seem shy to me."

Gans explains, "The American Association for Public Opinion Research released a report following the 2020 election evaluating preelection polling, which overstated (Joe) Biden's support compared to Trump by an even larger margin than in 2016. Jackson, who was involved in crafting the report, said it found 'no real data' to support the idea of shy Trump voters. Instead, it found some evidence, among other conclusions, that the issue was a struggle in reaching these voters who were more likely backing Trump."

Jackson rejects the idea that some Trump voters will lie about their support to pollsters.

Jackson told The Hill, "It's not that they answer the phone and lie; it's just that they don't answer the phone."

Read The Hill's full report at this link.

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