Shock survey reveals potential tapering of gap between Trump and Harris in Kansas

TOPEKA — A statewide online survey of political and public policy issues reveals nearly half of registered voters in red-state Kansas who plan to cast a ballot in the presidential election support Republican Donald Trump and more than 43% favoring Democrat Kamala Harris.

The 48.2% for Trump and 43.2% for Harris suggested further narrowing of the Kansas advantage for Trump, who has been the GOP nominee for president in 2016, 2020 and 2024. In 2016, Trump carried Kansas with 56.6% against 36% for Democrat Hillary Clinton. Trump won Kansas in 2020, but the gap closed modestly with Trump at 56.2% and Democrat Joe Biden at 41.5%.

On the national level, the November race between Trump and Harris was a toss-up with the outcome tied to voter preferences in a half dozen swing states.

The survey of 645 adult Kansans by the Docking Institute for Public Affairs at Fort Hays State University indicated 59% were dissatisfied with Biden and 28.5% satisfied with Biden’s work as president. On the other hand, 46.4% approved and 27.1% disapproved of Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly.

In terms of the Kansas Legislature, 30.3% were dissatisfied and 29.1% were satisfied. And, 20.6% were dissatisfied and 26.8% satisfied with the Kansas Supreme Court. Fifty-five percent were disappointed and 15.9% were impressed with the U.S. Congress.

The Docking Institute says 60.5% were confident the reported winner of elections in Kansans accurately reflected the vote. While some Republicans in state and federal office argue elections were undermined by fraud, 52.3% of respondents in the FHSU survey said it wasn’t a problem in Kansas. In this year’s survey, 12.4% said Kansas elections were distorted by fraud.

Fifteen percent said undocumented immigrants were voting in Kansas elections “in large numbers,” but 37.2% disagreed with that unproven claim. By a two-to-one margin, the survey showed Kansans wanted to retain the option of advance voting and use of mail-in ballots.

Abortion, economics

More than two-thirds of respondents said women were in a better position than politicians to make decisions about abortion. Sixty-one percent said it should be legal for women to travel outside the state for an abortion if the Kansas Supreme Court discarded constitutional protections for abortion rights and the Legislature banned “all or most abortions.”

In the 2024 survey, the percentage who believed the Kansas economy was getting weaker moved from 43.7% in 2022 to 37.6% this year. Despite a declining inflation rate, half of those taking part in the survey said inflationary pressures had affected their family “a great deal.”

“Kansans’ rating of the Kansas economy has become more positive in the past three years,” said Jian Sun, co-author of the Docking Institute survey. “The percentage of Kansans rating the Kansas economy as excellent or very good increased from 16.1% in 2022 to 21.1% in 2024.”

Seventy-five percent of people answering the survey said expanding eligibility for Medicaid, and drawing down hundreds of millions of dollars in federal funding, would help rural Kansas hospitals remain in business. Only 4.5% disagreed with that view. Half of Kansans said expansion of Medicaid to lower-income Kansans was a “highly or extremely important” issue when deciding who to vote for in state House and Senate races.

Consistent with previous Docking Institute surveys, 65.2% of respondents supported legalizing recreational marijuana sales to individuals 21 or older. A higher percentage — 72.9% — wanted the Legislature to legalize consumption of cannabis for medical purposes.

Fifty-five percent said they strongly or somewhat disagreed with a 2015 state law allowing adults to carry concealed handguns without a license or permit. And, 58.8% objected to state law allowing adults to carry concealed guns on college campuses.

The survey said 83.1% wanted to block sale of firearms to people reported as dangerous to law enforcement by mental health providers. Seventy-seven percent say a person convicted of violent misdemeanors shouldn’t be allowed to buy a firearm. Nearly three-fourths of Kansans in the survey want to require background checks for private and gun-show sales of firearms. Fifty-four percent support a ban on assault-style weapons and ammunition clips holding more than 10 bullets.

In terms of immigration, 53.8% agreed legal immigrants enriched American culture and values. Just under half said legal immigrants were accepting jobs that U.S. citizens didn’t want, while 45.7% said too many immigrants were coming into the United States.

Thirty-six percent of respondents said illegal immigrants should be arrested and placed in detention camps while awaiting deportation hearings, but 41.1% disagreed with that policy. Forty-five percent said illegal immigrants were a threat to public safety, but 31.9% had the opposite view.

Housing, child care

On the issue of housing, 41.8% said they didn’t have savings to cover their monthly expenditures for housing. Almost 60% said lack of affordable houses to purchase or rent had negative impacts on their community.

“We’ve been tracking housing issues for three years now, as housing is not just important to a family’s quality of life but also to a community’s ability to attract and retain a workforce,” said Brett Zollinger, the survey’s co-author and the Docking Institute director.

Three-fourths of respondents in the 2024 survey said state government should pass laws expanding access to affordable child care and 71.2% said the federal government should do likewise. In addition, 67.7% want local government to use public resources to expand access to child care.

One-third of those answering the survey said local government wasn’t sufficiently invested in conserving water resources, while 36.8% said state government fell short in terms of water conservation. Half said they were concerned Kansas might be running out of water and 62% said Kansas farmers needed to change farming practices due to declining water levels.

A copy of 2024 Kansas Speaks survey results, as well as results from previous years, can be found at https://www.fhsu.edu/docking/Kansas-Speaks/.

Kansas Reflector is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Kansas Reflector maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Sherman Smith for questions: info@kansasreflector.com. Follow Kansas Reflector on Facebook and X.