Why Kyrsten Sinema just improved Biden’s chances of winning Arizona — again

Tuesday, March 5 brought a major development in Arizona's 2024 U.S. Senate race when centrist Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Arizona) announced that she won't be seeking reelection.

Arizona voters were wondering if their state would see a three-way Senate battle between independent Sinema (a former Democrat) and the major parties' likely nominees: liberal Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and far-right MAGA Republican Kari Lake. But with Sinema's announcement, Arizona will probably see a two-way race between Gallego and Lake.

In an op-ed published by MSNBC's website on March 7, journalist and Latino Rebels founder Julio Ricardo Varela argues that Sinema may have just done President Joe Biden a huge favor by not seeking reelection — as her decision puts Biden in a better position to win Arizona again.

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Varela believes that Biden and Gallego can have a mutually beneficial relationship in 2024 and that the Latino congressman "may be" Biden's "best hope for a repeat victory in Arizona over former President Donald Trump."

"November's showdown between a working-class Latino Democrat and an election-denying MAGA candidate who blames an 'invasion' of migrants for America's problems may prove to be important not just for control of the Senate, but also, for control of the White House," Varela explains. "Though polls show Biden trailing Trump in Arizona by an average of 5.5 points, a poll conducted just before Sinema's announcement showed Gallego leading Lake by 7 points. Biden's success in Arizona may depend on his grabbing Gallego's coattails."

Trump has a history of both losing and winning presidential races in Arizona, which was very Republican in the past but has evolved into a swing state in recent years. The former president defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton in Arizona in 2016, but Biden narrowly won the state in 2020.

Gallego, who has been encouraging fellow Democrats to use "Latino" instead of "Latinx" in their communications with Hispanic voters, is confident that he can help Biden with Latino turnout in Arizona.

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Gallego, in an interview, told Varela, "I actually understand where the true Latino is in Arizona. Not influenced by an East Coast-West Coast bias that comes from the pundits. It comes from liberals sometimes, too. It also comes from conservatives…. Latinos are not extremists. Latinos want solutions like anybody else."

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Julio Ricardo Varela's full MSNBC op-ed is available at this link.